Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
All good points.

There is no tension on the oil side due to refinery losses. There is no tension on the product side thanks to the 1 mb/d product deliveries from European strategic reserves. But how long is that going to last?

Don't you think that the market is very unusual in that there is a very short term excess of supply at the same time as a strong likelihood of inverse imbalances in the medium term?

I'll stick to my end of year bet of 100$ for oil.

Your points on natural gas are of course well noted.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Oct 6th, 2005 at 11:23:34 AM EST
Mogas deliveries from Europe could last all winter.  I'm 10 yrs out of date and a few refineries there have bit the dust since, but back in the dark ages, we stocked European components in every tank we could find against spring price spikes in the US (esp. California).

At these mogas cracks ($1.87=$78.5-$62 =$16.5!!!) any refiner will keep runs at max till doomsday.  Winter cracks used to be about $3 with heat about $4....

How much mogas is really coming out of tank from the stragetic reserves?  Much of the planned releases from the SPR never happened as no one wanted/needed it.

by HiD on Thu Oct 6th, 2005 at 01:05:25 PM EST
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