But the point on reserves was that the oil reserve data will still be mainly provided by members of the cartel.  They will continue to have an agenda in terms of how they are trying to manage expectations of other competitors iin the energy market, as well as the overall market price.  Therefore, IMHO, they will continue to post reserve estimates more based upon their agenda, than any reality based numbers on reserves.

So guessing the price of oil is a lot about guessing what competitive strategies will be among key oil producers in the future.  Kind of like playing the lottery IMHO, where the number between $20 and $100 will win 99.5% of the time, with $45 or something like that probably being the highest probability number by, say March '05.  Just my opinion.

I should have said more in my post about how good your diary is--seriously.  My comments were totally around the $100/'barrel predictions, which i imagine in reality is less important to you now, than giving us more insights into the market.