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UPDATED: Countdown to 100$ oil (16) - We'll know on Monday | 28 comments (28 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
I am putting faith in what? (none / 0)
I say precisely that we know very little about reserves, so I am not sure I understand your point.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2005 at 04:33:49 AM EST
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My main point was the need to analyze this (none / 0)
more in the framework of a cartel.  Your diary is good, and provides a number of needed insights.  Certainly the transparency on data is a move in the right direction.

But the point on reserves was that the oil reserve data will still be mainly provided by members of the cartel.  They will continue to have an agenda in terms of how they are trying to manage expectations of other competitors iin the energy market, as well as the overall market price.  Therefore, IMHO, they will continue to post reserve estimates more based upon their agenda, than any reality based numbers on reserves.

So guessing the price of oil is a lot about guessing what competitive strategies will be among key oil producers in the future.  Kind of like playing the lottery IMHO, where the number between $20 and $100 will win 99.5% of the time, with $45 or something like that probably being the highest probability number by, say March '05.  Just my opinion.

I should have said more in my post about how good your diary is--seriously.  My comments were totally around the $100/'barrel predictions, which i imagine in reality is less important to you now, than giving us more insights into the market.

by wchurchill on Sun Nov 20th, 2005 at 12:12:56 PM EST
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We're talking at cross purposes (none / 0)
I agree with your point about how this oligopoly works, and that they can manipulate things.

It's even worse than you think, as they are only providing input on production and stocks, not about individual fields, and they provide nothing about reserves. So i's a beginning in terms of information made avialable, but it's far from the end. And they will have to prove that they don't manipulate whatever little they provide.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2005 at 03:09:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

UPDATED: Countdown to 100$ oil (16) - We'll know on Monday | 28 comments (28 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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