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whatever comes out of this i doubt anything will change for better with respect to the palestinians. israelis have grown enamored to their genocidal occupation of palestinian lands, and all but indifferent to their suffering or to international public opinion, which they think they control via loyal media conglomerates. there is no motivation to change anything here, at least while sharon and the old guard still have a say in israeli politics. this old guard does not want peace and they are too inflexible to see that they are damaging their country with their "no peace at any price" attitude.
whatever happens in israel re inner politics, what could effect a change to their attitude in the Palästinenserfrage are the financial difficulties of the US and the connections which are increasingly been made between the disastrous GWOT of the pro-israel extremists in the US administration and israel itself, which all could put in question the US$ 3-5 Billion israel gets from the US each year. the occupation of palestine costs lots and israel simply does not have an economy able to sustain it. if the massive tributes from the US stop coming, they will have to think of alternatives which do not ruin the country out of existence.
Demography.
If they do not end the occupation now, within 10 years you have again a palestinian majority....they would not ask for an state but to vote if the occupation is very deep.
By the way, the israeli army depends on the US, but the israeli economy depends on Europe. The main trading partner is Europe...or at least this is what I read in Haaretz...
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
Some hardliners (at times including Sharon) openly talked about either re-settling Palestinians to Jordan, or create conditions for mass economic emigration. Tough, that scheme looks less workable now.
US aid to Israel is not exclusively military - IIRC 40% is monetary, you could say Israel buys from Europe with US money. (Not that this excuses the EU being fearful of using its leverage in the peace process previously.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I could give you their telephones.. he ehhehe he
In Israel it was indeed covered....who was against AIPAC in the US...???
Neo-con stuff, double loyalties..
For that matter, do you believe Fitzgerald will manage to get someone behind bars?
(No, don't read these questions as an expression of my general cynism, I'm truly curious what you think.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I'm not arguing the case btw, as I know there is a very clear Palestinean argument,,,but I think this is the reason, and in reality it hurts US national interest--but viewed as just the right thing to do.
And about the economy..there is a lot of direct help for US, absolutely true. I just read that it was not as important for the israeli economy as the direct trade with Europe without US money too.
And yes, Europe has as leverage as the US.. we just pretend we don't.. so shhhhhhhhhh.!!!!
Sharon's said a lot of things. Just four years ago he was attacking those who called for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza by saying that abandoning even the smallest, most isolated Gaza settlement is equivalent to abandoning Tel Aviv...
In the past couple years he has added dovish remarks to his standard repertoire of hawkish ones. His closest advisors have over the past year or two been talking openly to the press about evacuating 90% of the West Bank. (i.e. almost as much as Barak's final offer of 92% at Taba, I believe the Palestinian final offer was about 97%) When asked about the remarks Sharon promptly says he has no plans for further evacuations. Then the next time he talks about the need for large scale 'painful sacrifices' being needed. Considering that if he wanted to follow the hawkish policy he could have happily stayed in Likud, I think it's clear he wants further evacuations.
As kcurie has pointed out, the big territorial difference between the left and Sharon's newfound center seems to be over Jerusalem. The left is fine with what the Palestinians and Israelis agreed to at Taba -i.e. dividing up E. Jerusalem into its predominantly Arab and predominantly Jewish neighbourhoods, the center isn't. The two also seem to have a different perspective on whether Israel should seek a negotiated final settlement with the Palestinians or just go its own unilateral course.
I'm too tired to start a debate on Barak's final offer. But there are some issues to mention with Sharon: one is the Wall, which has a wider economic effect on the Palestinians who are cut off. The other is water. The third is the security perimeter to be maintained at the expense of Palestinian sovereignity. (Recall that he told that the Gaza pullout will be the worse for the Palestinians.) The fourth is the refugee question.
On your last paragraph, I agree, there are significant differences, but whether that is enough for anything approaching a fair peace, I am not so sure. (I imagine a really bold and fairer proposal would include a large territorial compensation, say as enlargement of Gaza, for any West Bank changes from 1968 borders and the refugee agreement and 1948. But this looks to me at present a political impossibility.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
As far as compensation for annexed territory in the West Bank and E. Jerusalem goes I agree. I'm not sure what you mean by 1948. If you're referring to the proposed partition in the original UN resolution establishing Israel, I don't see how that is relevant in practical or legal terms. Israel's internationally recognized borders are those of 1966, and have been for a very long time. It makes no more sense to talk of that ephemeral proposed map than it does for the ultra hawks to bring up the (true) fact that for a brief period after WWI 'Palestine' was thought of as including what is now Jordan.
On the refugees I suspect we disagree completely. I don't just mean that even most of the Israeli left rejects any notion of a meaningful right of 'return' and thus there isn't any prospect of it being implemented. I also find the idea wrong in principal. For while I think that attempts should be made to rectify ethnic cleansing in the immediate aftermath of such an event, doing so decades later is simply compounding one wrong with another. There simply has to be a statute of limitations on such things. In this my thinking has been perhaps influenced by my automatic association of a right of 'return' to the German expellee movement's notion of a Recht auf Heimat (or Heimatrecht) which is clearly associated with the strange idea that there is some mystical hereditary connection between a people/nation/race and territory (Kulturlandschaft). A notion that, incidentally is similar to that of the Zionist argument that Jews have some sort of historical right to Palestine. In my view they have the right to Israel because Israel exists, period.
I agree.
I also find the idea wrong in principal. For while I think that attempts should be made to rectify ethnic cleansing in the immediate aftermath of such an event, doing so decades later is simply compounding one wrong with another. There simply has to be a statute of limitations on such things.
Here I´m unsure... So then when do you think those limitations you mention should start to work? What does "immediate" mean? One year after the ethnic cleansing, five years or ten years later? Just asking? And remembering Rwanda, Bosnia and Kosovo.
Doesn´t that mean that if nobody - no important country in the world - is interested in "you", "you" are required to shut up once once your "limitation" is reached? So if a powerful nation "occupies" your territory for - say one generation - and expells "you", "you" should shut up once reaching the "limitation". Right?
So Tibet should be quiet. Same for the West Sahara. And East Timor never should have gained statehood either. You just have to expell more than 50% of the complaining people for - how long? - one generation and the "statute of limitations" is valid, right?
So the Russians did just make one mistake. They just didn´t send more than 50% of the Baltic population to Siberia when they could. With the result of losing the Baltic states in the 1990s. I´m sure future dictators will carefully view your "statutes of limitations". :)
In this my thinking has been perhaps influenced by my automatic association of a right of 'return' to the German expellee movement's notion of a Recht auf Heimat (or Heimatrecht) which is clearly associated with the strange idea that there is some mystical hereditary connection between a people/nation/race and territory (Kulturlandschaft).
Get real! Only a tiny minority of Germans would actually return to the birthplace of their great-parents. That said the Chech laws after 1945 didn´t distinguish between supporters of Hitler and people resisting him. So the laws might be a touch insensitive...
So you disagree with the Baltic states laws that if you want to be a citizen you have to speak the local language and be a local citizen? I mean their law made some "mystical hereditary connection between a people/nation/race and territory". Given your definition they don´t even have a right to exist?
The Baltic states only existed between 1920 and 1940? Less than one generation. Before 1918 they were part of Russia. After 1945 they were part of the USSR. So according to your definition they don´t have any right to exist? Your "statute of limitations" would have certainly expired for these states?
How long do you think the rights should last? Do you think the Poles in the postwar period with their talk of 'recovered territories' and the 'repatriation' of the German 'settlers' were correct?
Only a tiny minority of Germans would actually return to the birthplace of their great-parents. That said the Chech laws after 1945 didn´t distinguish between supporters of Hitler and people resisting him. So the laws might be a touch insensitive... The number actively involved (as opposed to passively supporting) was a small minority of the population. In any case depending on how the question was asked a clear majority of the expellees wished to return into the sixties. A right of return was the official policy of the German government until Brandt, and remained the official policy of the expellee movement long after that. And if the expellees had been kept in refugee camps as second class citizens (Jordan, occuppied territories) or non-citizens (everywhere else) I suspect that plenty would still want to 'return.' Conversely, if the Arab governments had had a deliberate policy of scattering the refugees throughout the rest of the population, breaking up old local communities geographically, and providing financial aid and partial compensation for lost property I imagine we wouldn't be all that worried about the Palestinian refugee problem today. (To be exact the Bundesregierung had a dual, contradictory policy for the expellees. On the one hand the practical one described above. On the other a propaganda/cultural one seeking to preserve their local identities so that they would want to return - hence the large scale funding of the Landsmannschaft movement and its associated organizations.)
Re. the Baltics - you do realize that Vilnius had a Lithuanian population of at most 5% in 1939, and no I don't think the Poles (or rather their children and grandchildren) expelled from Lithuania, Belarus, and Ukraine have any rights with respect to those countries.
And as a final note, a poem by the Polish poet Anna Frajlich, about her home town of Szczecin, formerly Stettin. (translation mine) City
A sharp western light strikes my eyes a different view greeted me from my childhood windows from one side gardens stretching out in the distance from the other end of a street planted so thickly with lindens that their crowns formed a tent the light as in a tunnel somewhere in the distance round and promising the city was not ours but taken from others who fled here in the wartime chaos and left everything either buried in the gardens or covered by the rubble or simply on the table red wine in crystal glasses unfinished dark stains on the sides the city was not ours but it flowered for us berries and apple trees in countless gardens violets and lilies in the hedges' shadows flowered the city by the river spilled out along the borders and in this city one heard various languages --like the bushes -- transplanted from east to west someone drawled in from Wilno someone's Lwow gentry maners -- in a whisper someone still spoke in German and the survivors' Yiddish filled the streets and on the riverbanks the city slang already grew like grass among the stones and it is such an image that endures in my mind sometimes somber and then again full of summer glare spring autumn in the smoke of burning branches the city of my childhood
taken from someone so that someone else's childhood would pass by elsewhere
Why would that be the Arab governments' task? I hope you don't think the neighbouring Arab states' military response to Israel's unilateral declaration of independence is an all-Arab war crime comparable to Nazi Germany's, and you don't buy the broad Zionist (I'm afraid to say not just Likudnik) spin that the more recent development of Palestinian identity and the existence of the pan-Arabist ideology means that there are no real inter-Arab distinctions and all refugees are just 'Arabs'.
(Besides, no one thought this situation will last 50 years.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
As for borders, Palestinians were no party to said international agreements. I brought up border changes in the context of a fair peace and a solution to the refugee issue (more on it below). Given that those international agreements didn't cover the denial of the right of return, they are irrelevant to my argument. (As for 1948, I was not referring to the proposed partition, but the ethnic cleansing.)
On the refugee issue, we indeed appear to disagree completely. For you, the consensus of Israeli politicians is a constraint setting the framework of a possible agreement, for me it is a central problem that has to be solved for a true agreement. (This is connected to the Israeli side of what I said elsewhere, the problem of history - things like that in 1968 Israel was the attacker not attacked, and that the Yom Kippur war was not without justification given the occupied Syrian and Egyptian territories.)
The Palestinian refuge problem cannot be compared to the case of post-WWII Germany, where there were interstate agreements, a large home country to absorb refugees, and the backdrop of a genocidal war that made many Germans accept/believe that this is the price to pay as a guilty nation. Nor to Poland, which was shifted to the East, nor to other post-WWII ethnic cleansings that were more of a reciprocal nature.
Israel doesn't want the refugees (and descendants) to move back for fear of upsetting the ethnic balance - but just that is the problem of Jordan and Lebanon too, which would cease to exist if Palestinian refugees were granted citizenship, while Gaza became an overcrowded megaslum with no room to expand ('internal' 1948 refugees are somehow always forgotten).
If Israel wants to limit the number of those moving back, it has to give some compensation, and the best would be territorial - especially given the situation of Gaza. I note that a large inflow of Palestinian refugees was always a spin of the Barak camp: the Palestinian negotiators did contemplate Israel's point of view, and always said that the right of return is more symbolic than practical: they didn't expect the overwhelming majority of refugees to move into Israel anyway, and had compensation schemes in mind (and ones less bold than mine, BTW).
(Side note: I am not sure that that many German expellees think about collective, rather than individual rights to property - but I submit you being the professional, you must know them better.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
My answer would be that it is because of the incredibly destabilizing effect of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But that only makes sense if the objective is to seek a resolution. And that brings me to the second paragraph about the Israeli consensus against a Palestinian right of return. Insisting on such a right is the equivalent of saying that there will be no peace for the forseeable future since an overwhelming majority of Israelis sees it as tantamount to the destruction of their country. You could counter by saying the same applies in reverse to the Palestinians. I don't think that is the case, but if it is then there is no real hope for settling the conflict and international efforts should be limited to just keeping it at as low a level as possible. Forcing Israel to accept a right of return strikes as absolutely insane - seeking the destruction of a nuclear armed, conventionally powerful state, smack in the middle of an important and volatile region is not exactly a recipe for world stability. I'll also note that its been almost forty years since the UN Security Council abandoned its insistence on a right of return - switching to a conveniently vague demand for a 'just solution' to the refugee problem.
In the case of Germany I agree with you on one point - the expulsions took place in the immediate aftermath of Germany's crimes during WWII. Germans only began seeing it in that light in the sixties. In the first ten-fifteen years of the Bundesrepublik the Germans themselves were presented as the primary victims of the war. The interstate agreement (i.e. the Potsdam declaration) was made by the victorious great powers, Germany wasn't involved, nor was Poland a party to the agreement shifting its borders, though the ethnic cleansing of Germans did have the support of virtually all Poles. West Germany's constantly repeated official policy (repeated both verbally and in German law) was that the 1937 borders remained valid, that expellees retained ownership over all property in the Vertreibungsgebiete, that the compensation they received in the Lastenausgleich did not change that one bit, that the Poles in the former German lands were illegal squatters. With respect to the Sudetenland the policy was that Munich was not valid but that the expulsion was illegal and that the Sudeten Germans had a right to exercize their Selbstbestimmungsrecht - i.e. to vote to join Germany. The expellee movement rejected the idea that the Poles or Czechs had any claims on private property, using the analogy that no matter how long a thief keeps posession of his stolen goods, and even if they pass on to his children, they remain the property of the rightful owner and his heirs. It was only in 1991 that Germany accepted the Potsdam borders de jure (1970 was only de facto since the constitutional court ruled that West Germany couldn't give de jure recognition to the postwar borders)
And no, I don't think Israel should offer compensation to the refugees, and if it should, then think for a second just what the proportionate compensation should be for a relatively bloodless (Kosovo level) ethnic cleansing, vs what Israel would deserve from Germany, or indeed other nations complicit in one degree or another in the Holocaust. Or what the Armenians should get from the Turks, or pretty much every nation of the former (and in the case of the Caucasus - current) Russian colonial empire.
The hellish mess of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is in large part the direct result of the attitudes and actions of European societies. Israel should withdraw to borders based on the 1967 status quo ante with one-for one compensation for any (minor) adjustments, but that's it. Paying for the monetary cost of making the agreement work should be the rest of the world's problem, and particularly that of Europe.
I think the old guard has long moved to the "peace at a very high price", or "peace at the conditions I set" attitude - which may be shared broadly by younger politicians too. Not that makes the Palestinians' position any better, to the contrary - such a policy (with elements like the Wall) may be kept up even without US support. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
at a very high price to the palestinians, you probably mean. since we are discussing semantics here, what i mean is a peace which reflects the intentions expressed in the 60 or so UN resolutions regarding Palestine and the jewish occupation. i more or less regard the implementation of these resolutions as basis for a just peace.
a so-called "peace" in which the palestinians are made to emigrate because of economic conditions - genocide by any definition of the word - or where they are reduced to live forever in dependency of economic aid, or where their lands are converted to open-air concentration camps surrounded by a wall and infested with extremist jewish criminals, that is not peace.
the jews of palestine have shown in the 60 or so years of the existence of israel that they have no will to make peace under fair and equitable conditions. what they want at any price is the kind of "peace" about which DoDo speaks, which is implemented with the help of genocide, mass murder, wholesale brutality (remember milosevic and the kosovo ?). this is no wonder in a country where children learn at the age of 2 that arabs are dogs.
instead of supporting such a country, we should give them the milosevic treatment.
Antisemitism means anti-Jew. Period. Jewish anti-Arab racists aren't self hating antisemites. Arab antisemites are not self-hating anti-Arab racists. The "Arabs speak a semitic langauge and therefore...' meme is just as absurd as suggesting that anti Afrikaaner views equal anti African racism because, well, look at what the Afrikaaners are called.
What 'genocide' are you talking about. Is it the roughly 0.1% of the Palestinian population that has been killed over the course of the five plus years of the current cycle of violence?
Both Israelis and Palestinians were making viable offers just five years ago.
More important, this idea is revulsive to the great majority of israelis. Think that the movement advocating transfer is mostly banned.. and those politicians bordering the line would get no more than 10% of the vote... Just like trhowing the Jews to the Mediterranean does not occur to more than 10% of the Palestinians.
Qué revulsivo más ostentóreo. A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
Well, Sharon himself brought up this version again before he was first elected PM, tough as discussed earlier, I agree that he may have long abadoned this as realistic option. (BTW, according to Uri Avnery, when Sharon ignored his orders during the invasion of Lebanon, his original plan was to chase Arafat all the way to Amman, with Jordan turning Palestine as a result, an idea he must have hatched during Black September - so he didn't "misspoke".) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
You also misread me because you equate 'peace' with 'fair peace' (rather than end of armed conflict). And 'Milosevic treatment' may sound a good retort towards hypocrites, but personally I am not too fond of such talk, given what I saw of the results of this 'Milosevic treatment'. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
no. i do not misread you. we all know what "peace at any price" means to the old white boys who have first been terrorists themselves under the british occupation and then either continued their careers in the military or in politics. these old boys will not learn anything new, they should be sent into retirement, or, in the case of 'special' people - incorregible war criminals - like sharon, mofaz and some others, given the 'milosevic treatment' and sent off to a jail somewhere in the hague. (and i dont confuse this with what nato did to yugoslavia, what was a crime no less than the iraq invasion).
gush shalom and the refuseniks are more than comendable - IMO they deserved the nobel for peace rather than IAEA - but they are a minority in a country with a bad case of criminal leadership and deluded masses. to suggest that either movement is representative of public opinion would be wishful thinking at best. the current govt of sharons likud, as extremist as it may appear to us, or even the settler movement, are far more representative of public opinion in israel than either gush shalom or seruv.
also, i stand by my other formulation: in israel, everybody goes to the military for 3 (girls 2) years, so it is not like anybody over the age of 18 can reasonably deny knowledge of the atrocities in the territories. let that sink in: we are speaking here of a nation of 5-6 million where everybody knows or has heared of crimes against humanity being perpetrated by their nation against defenseless people, where everybody takes part and where everybody save a small minority chose to applaud, justify, or at least ignore these crimes and return to business as usual after helping to commit them. there you have 5 million people who know but dont care, who could have done or said something but chose not to, whose leaders actually state that their moral categories are so different from ours that we would never understand them and should thus refrain from criticizing their acts. this is a stark contrast to the 3rd reich, where many, many people not directly involved in the war effort could reasonably deny knowledge of the atrocities being perpetrated by their government.
since we are trying to repair the world, i'll state that my favorite solution for the israel/palestine problem would be the one nation model, where everybody gets the same rights under the law and where all palestinians are given full citizenship, where religious kooks are relegated to the status of curiosities, where reparations are paid to all palestinians, where the palestinian diaspora is given the right to return plus ample opportunities at least unto the 4th generation, where nakhba-denial and zionism prohibition laws are passed modeled after the current holocaust denial and NS prohibition laws here in germany and austria. the place should be occupied by the international community and all weapons in excess of what is needed for reasonable self-defense should be destroyed (that would include their nukes and chem and bio stuff) until the situation has stabilized enough to be confident that both sides will not start killing each other again. i see the israeli political class as essentially irresponsible and incapable or unwilling of managing their country in a constructive way without causing problems, this is straightforward.
i am realist enough to understand that most of this is politically impossible, but it is important that the troubles cease once and for all, and in terms and conditions very different from the "peace at any price (to them)" favored by the politicasters in power. the public discussion has until now been too influenced by people who should have no say in it because they are part of the problem. the first step towards a livable solution to the current troubles in palestine should take the form of a healthy discussion without taboos, just this time without those unwilling to concede to a just and equitable peace.
ok, i suppose that will put me at risk of being extradited to israel for 'hateful statements', or, god forbid, pissing off jerome or bernhard.
let the flamewars ensue !
Well, Uri Avnery was one of those old boys - yet he managed to change. As for some other old boys, you continue to misread me: I indeed don't expect anything good from Sharon (and not much good anymore from ousted Labour leader Perez), the change of strategy I posit is not a quality improvement (see also my reply to Marek). Meanwhile, a number of others who push the agenda in Israel are not old boys, at least not old enough to have been pre-Israel terrorists - Netanyahu, Barak, a lot of others.
As for the refuseniks and Gush Shalom, I did not say they 'represent public opinion' - I know they are a minority (and hope some day they will be majority), but the thing you fail to contemplate is my rejection of blanket statements. If you say "Israelis this Israelis that", you denounce the Gush Shalom people too. This is like if I said that "Austrians are Nazi apologists", based on very broadly held (extending well into the SPÖ) false views about the nature of and Austrians' role in the Third Reich.
Your point about widely held hypocrisy and guilt in connection to the draft would again be a very good argument, had you not overstated it. For, not everyone goes to the military (older immigrants - the impact of the Russian immigration on the level of the Israeli public's ignorance is rarely discussed - and religious people don't), and (by far) not everyone in the IDF goes on active duty in the occupied territories, and not everyone who does will have a full oversight over what's going on - in fact, youngsters ignorant of even recent history and not personally witnessing the clear war crimes (or having insight into decisionmaking behind the parading-as-security-measures ones) can soldier through their time in full conviction of righteousness - i.e, be part of the self-deluded masses. (Of course, one might say such lack of critical thinking has implicit racism behind it.)
On your next two paragraphs, I am in almost perfect agreement, tough I add that such an ideal solution has mass opposition and to be suppressed political movements on the Palestinian side, too. (I suspect you do see this just weren't explicit.)
Your last was unnecessary tough: on one hand, Bernhard has no admin rights here - his is Moon of Alabama, on the other, I suspect it is much harder to pis of Jérôme than for example me - as yet no one was banned on this site. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
One more point I forgot: given that recent nation-building efforts have a meagre record, including non-US ones, to believe that this can be done practically seems rather close to (the more naive) neocons' delusions about remaking the Middle East. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
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