It's for real in Isreal-rael (UPDATE) | 54 comments (54 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

It seems the role of the pessimist is always mine... My fear is that Peretz's proposal of dismantling only settlements where 60% request it volutarily is unrealistic - given that they are usually filled with the radicals (many of them coming from the USA), I don't expect most settlements to vote so (even if they hold a vote at all), and there is no indication Peretz would show the resolve to act up and undo at least most of the post-1968 land grap in that case (no one mentions the post- and pre-1948 ones these days).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 04:53:34 AM EST

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

I will say that most of 1968, yes, indeed . I think a new government will have the resolve... But one thing is "most of" and another thing is "all of" 1968. In this last case I have no idea.. I do not know.. Right now I do not see the will.. you are right. But stuff can happen... or not

But just having a serious option to vote for "leave almost all of 1968" is really a big development in Israel.

By the way the number of radicals in the West Bank does not reach the 20%. They can be ejected if necessary. No problem about it, if there is will.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 05:27:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

By the way the number of radicals in the West Bank does not reach the 20%.

Could you post more on this? (What measure of 'radical', what kind of data, pre-Gaza-pullout or after?)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 07:20:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 1)

Yes, sure.

I read it in Haaretz. By radical they meant people that would declare themselves as ready to fight the state of Israel if anybody tried to removed them from the Land God gave to the Jews.

I will try to get the statistics and post them.

It would also be interesting to recall how many of the settlers live just because the money they recieve is huge and how many for political reason.

In Gaza, residents were divided in these three groups and there were hardly anyone ready to fight. and mostly were there for political reasons (only few were there for the big house and the garden they got. In the West Bank there are people ready to fight...but there is also a lot of people whoa re jus there because housing and schooling is almost free

I hope I will find them.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 08:29:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

Thanks in advance!

For the record, of the three groups you name, my usage of "radical" involved both the willing-to-fight and not-willing-to-fight political groups. If the economically-motivated are a 60% majority in the West Bank, that would be indeed a sign for optimism.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 08:39:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

If the economically-motivated are a 60% majority in the West Bank, that would be indeed a sign for optimism.

You would hope Peretz would have internal Labour polls or other information about how many of the settlements have over 40% of radicals. Unless you think he'd made this proposal to have it fail on purpose.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 08:51:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

Hm, no I was more thinking along the "naive self-delusion" line, so you have an interesting argument that reduced my scepticism. On the other hand, I wonder if internal polls for such small populations as a single settlement are possible.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 08:59:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

Other information as in: past election results, who the mayor is, asking local Labour members what's up...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:01:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

All good points, tough this may be too rough information. (How do the settlements vote, anyone knows?) But I guess we'll know more if we see the Haaretz figures.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:06:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

Another, more sceptical possibility: that Peretz may be content with emptying much less than the overwhelming majority of settlements.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:02:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 1)

I got the number for the economical. It is 30-35%. with 25% of the total willing to leave immediately.

Haaretz Poll

Now you will need to slice the other 65-70 %. I would say 20% were radical and the rest political as in Gaza. But I do not find the other poll now.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:03:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

Hm... I'm not sure how to interpret this poll.

First, this separates out only settlers beyond the fence, not the entire West Bank.

It appears from the poll that only 35% are willing to leave (25% immediately) - at least, unless the settlers have some other reason to reject that specific proposal of money compensation for moving.

The overall figures for Israelis are much higher, which may imply that support for it is higher among fenced-in settlers too, but I'm not sure what that would imply for a plan valid for the fenced-in settlements.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:12:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 1)

OK. Here you have the poll reference by Haaretz but it does not belong to Haaretz. It is from an israeli left-wing group so it may be biased.

They put the figure of radicals at 23%

Settlers poll areas

SO it indeed reaches 20%

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:07:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (4.00 / 2)

In Europe we have about 15% of authoritarian voters across countries, so I don't find it surprising that 20-23% of settlers are willing to fight their own country if they feel betrayed. 50% of ETA actions happen in the Basque country, and they hate the Ertzaintza (Basque police) as much as they hate the Spanish Guardia Civil. Israel may have to go through their own version of the French decolonization of Algeria, OAS. After all, these people have already assassinated one Prime Minister.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:15:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 1)

c. And the most compelling finding: 53% of the settlers in Judea and Samaria think the evacuation-compensation law should be applied to all the settlements in Judea and Samaria.

That's indeed most compelling!

But my pessimist soul found something worrying, too (unfortunately not numerised):

In addition large majority of the respondents didn't know whether Ariel, Maale Adumim, Ofra or Kochav Yair are settlements or not.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:16:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

I agree with you..

I am never positive or negative. But where not for the mutual hate isralis and palestenians have , a hugemajority agree on almost anything except for Jerusalem.

As Migeru siad,among the settlers there are more radicals (10% more roughly) and more politically motivated (although not against the state). the figures are bad, but the process can be implemented... you only need will..

It has always been land for refugees (Demographic solution) and then...the problem (symbolic and religious):

Jerusalem....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:37:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's for real in Isreal-rael (none / 0)

I think history is a disagreement not to underestimate. In my opinion, it may be the most important stumbling block - the interpretation of who should sacrifice what and deserve compensation for what...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 10:20:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

80% would leave (none / 1)

I've seen figures in a poll conducted about two yars ago that straight out posed the question: "would you leave if you were fully compensated?" and the results were that just over 80% of all Israeli settlers said "Yes."

If this is the assumption Peretz is making, it's in fact beyond brilliant. Because now, the radicals would have to follow majority rule which is against their own demographic designsr. He's using their strategy against them.

You see, there aren't enough radicals, thankfully. They show up at the very beginning when an "outpost" is founded. They do all the hard grunt work, financing, legal processes, etc. of establishing the settlement and then they rely on generous Israeli government subsidies (which used to flow like a river of milk and honey) to lure economic migrants, a lot of whom have been apolitical immigrants from Eastern Europe, Russia and central Asia.

Once that gets done, they move on to the next settlement. They do try to spread themselves so that they maintain ideological influence in every settlement, which is why they never can form a majority in any major settlement.

My guess is that, at this very moment, they are doing their best to find new outpost with small, radical populations that could form a majority and at the same time put out a serious call for their mainland Israelis to move over to the settlements. At the very least, this will have a huge impact on their immigrant-importing operations.

"Political Violence is a perfectly legitimate answer to the persecution handed down by the dignitaries of the state." -Riven Turnbull

by florida democrat on Wed Nov 23rd, 2005 at 01:47:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's for real in Isreal-rael (UPDATE) | 54 comments (54 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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