I would say that, given the current baseline trend, we're looking at 2007 at the earliest, IF THERE ARE NO MAJOR INCIDENTS.

However, given the increase in both frequency and magnitude of the Atlantics Hurricane (not a sports francise), I think it is certainly possible.

For that matter, terrorism in the North Sea, Saudi oil fields, any number of distribution pipelines, etc, could have a profoundly bad affect on oil.

So, what are the odds of an incident before late 2007?

Happy little moron, lucky little man. I wish I was a moron, my God, perhaps I am! -- Spike Milligan