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Crossposted on DailyKos for your kind recommendations:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/12/27/183850/00

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 27th, 2005 at 06:55:30 PM EST
Meteor Blades $61.05  crude not stated
DoDo          $60 WTI  
Friend of Libery  $57.88  WTI <++++ projected winner
Me               $52.5 WTI (frigging Katrina )
Twin Planet      $51.44 spot FOB WTI whatever that means

Today's close $57.8 and looking heavy.  I don't see a $2.60 drop by friday though(damn it).  If it should happen, I'd rather you give the approx value to your favorite charity than waste a fortune shipping 2 bottles of alcohol 12,000 km around the world.

by HiD on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 04:09:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If it should happen, I'd rather you give the approx value to your favorite charity than waste a fortune shipping 2 bottles of alcohol 12,000 km around the world.

Being an abstainer, I second that. Preferably, some charity benefitting a group Sarko dissed, say to some charity giving winter places for homeless people in Paris.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:47:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Today's close $57.8 and looking heavy.

It's $59.05 right now - looking brighter for me :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:48:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
nah, API stats will show big builds in heat and gas tmw AM.  It's gonna dump (or maybe I'm completely wrong, it's a crapshoot)
by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 12:23:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's $60.50 now (going dangerously close for making not me but Meteor Blades the winner), does that mean you were wrong? (I'm not an energy trader, don't know what to look for)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 01:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I found this:

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $60 a barrel in New York amid concern that falling U.S. gasoline inventories will leave stockpiles inadequate to meet demand.

``The strength in gasoline is supporting crude oil,'' said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk management at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``It is a little early to be concerned about gasoline, but supplies have continued to trail year-ago levels week after week. Supplies are tight even with the high production rate and imports.''

Gasoline supplies fell 1.2 million barrels to 202.9 million in the week ended Dec. 23, according to the Energy Department. A 250,000 barrel decline was expected, according to the median of forecasts by 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Inventories of crude oil rose 118,000 barrels to 322.6 million. Stockpiles were forecast to drop 500,000 barrels.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 02:16:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm wrong.  

It's pretty odd for mogas to be drawing this time of year.  But that will get a lot of folks bidding up the entire complex betting that spring will be red hot.

If too many people try to buy say April/May timeframe futures, the only sellers left will be market makers who will hedge by buying the front months.  It's not like there is any real shortage of mogas in Feb (the liquid contract now).  It's just the only place to get enough liquidity to hedge against the outers.

Also, the price spread from now to April is almost 15 cts/gallon.  Some of that is quality differences but the rest implies plenty of supply now, with a lot of speculation that April/May will be very tight.  Traders will be working to fill tanks now and hedge to sell in May.  Refiners, especially export refiners in Europe, will make summer mogas in winter if a trader offers enough of a premium price.

I was too often on the bearish side.  Character flaw.

by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 04:30:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
actually data does lie.  The DOE/API stats aren't that accurate, but the industry reacts to them pretty strongly.
by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 04:31:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meteor Blades won, he was right to one cent...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Dec 31st, 2005 at 11:30:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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