The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
My default position with regards to the current oil price is that the market will bear the $55-$65 price range quite happily.
If the Iran bombing scenario is discounted as highly unlikley, then the principal risk factors are either climate or pipeline sabotage. Obviously, if the Bush administration does do the dirty then all predictions regarding outcomes go haywire, as we will be in uncharted territory. There was a period in late October when my 2 key factors combined, with the removal of 350 kbpd from Iraq to Turkey due to some spectacular pipeline sabotage, that has only recently been rectified, and approx. 1.1 mpbd were offline due to hurricanes. Fortunately the hurricanes took out refineries as well, thereby reducing demand for crude! The big difference next year will be the BTC pipeline which should be able to deliver an additional 1 million bpd to the world market, unless it gets sabotaged ( difficult as it is largely buried ).
It's possible that there will be a new top during the summer should there be another hurricane season; I'm, reliably informed that these are annual events. My top for the year will be $72.50 for Brent crude, and the end of year will be $62.00 for Brent crude.
The natural gas price will depend on how the rest of the winter pans out: if it's normal then the price pressure will remain on the upside, and there will be supply problems as the year progresses, mainly due to the current gap with UK supplies that is unlikely to close before 2007. If it remains warmer than the long-term average then the prices should be about 10-15% less. I'm guessing at a high of $29.00, with an end of year price of $22.00.
We will not see oil at $100 per barrel in 2006.
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 7
by Oui - Feb 4 33 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 2 8 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 26 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 31 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 22 3 comments
by Cat - Jan 25 63 comments
by Oui - Jan 9 21 comments
by Oui - Feb 7
by Oui - Feb 433 comments
by Oui - Feb 314 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 28 comments
by Oui - Feb 2109 comments
by Oui - Feb 16 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 313 comments
by gmoke - Jan 29
by Oui - Jan 2735 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 263 comments
by Cat - Jan 2563 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 223 comments
by Oui - Jan 2110 comments
by Oui - Jan 21
by Oui - Jan 20
by gmoke - Jan 20
by Oui - Jan 1841 comments
by Oui - Jan 1591 comments
by Oui - Jan 145 comments