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I'm going to bet oil ends '06 somewhere in the neighborhood of $70-$80 (let's say $77, since I'm leaning to the higher of the two).  $90, max.

I don't think it will be a stable rise, for one reason alone: terrorism.  I'm betting unrest continues throughout the Mid-East (not just in the obvious case of Iraq), with the possibility of severe attacks in Saudi Arabia and perhaps the US, Western Europe, (perhaps) Australia, and a few parts of Asia.

A attack on Continental Europe would not be stunning to me, unfortunately.  The spooks in Germany, France and Italy have been picking up signs of activity for quite some time now, and I'm not optimistic after the London bombings and (two weeks later) the failed attempts.  Radical extremists do seem to have more of a presence in Europe than I had first thought.  I hope I'm wrong.

That's a little beyond just oil, but I don't see 2006 as being the best of years.  It's certainly possible that we'll see a recession begin in the US, looking at how the housing market was slammed last month.  (Median prices fell on the order of roughly $14k, as I recall.)  But I'm betting it hits in either late-'06 or early-'07.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 07:46:26 PM EST

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