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I'll not bet, because I think the price of oil and gas is too dependent on variables that can't be predicted.

It could go way up, for various reasons. Many have already been listed, but consider also the effects that Venezuela might have on the market, or the possibility that a new version of OPEC might get organized (say one that controls coal, or that includes Russian and Quataran natural gas). Iran is still out there, and the U.S. could go off the deep end (or so could Europe) if Iran were to continue to push her nuclear programs.

Or it could stay constant, if OPEC decides that some stablity is needed.

Alternatively, the evangelical right in America could force the White House to undertake an aggressive energy conservation program. That's not too likely, I agree, but the scenario could develop like this: GM and Ford both declare bankruptcy and go under government protection, thus are relieved from competitive pressure and can make any sort of cars they want, just when the "Creation Care" movement gets going and Bush is scrambling for any last glimmer of control. Presto-chango, U.S. demand for gasoline plummets and the worldwide price of oil drops. Unlikely, but not impossible.

There are just too many variables. You might as well flip a coin...

by asdf on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:37:36 PM EST

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