Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 | 33 comments (33 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: quick scan of old threads looks like (none / 0)

nah, API stats will show big builds in heat and gas tmw AM. It's gonna dump (or maybe I'm completely wrong, it's a crapshoot)

by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 12:23:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: quick scan of old threads looks like (none / 0)

It's $60.50 now (going dangerously close for making not me but Meteor Blades the winner), does that mean you were wrong? (I'm not an energy trader, don't know what to look for)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 01:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: quick scan of old threads looks like (none / 0)

I found this:

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $60 a barrel in New York amid concern that falling U.S. gasoline inventories will leave stockpiles inadequate to meet demand.
``The strength in gasoline is supporting crude oil,'' said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk management at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``It is a little early to be concerned about gasoline, but supplies have continued to trail year-ago levels week after week. Supplies are tight even with the high production rate and imports.''
Gasoline supplies fell 1.2 million barrels to 202.9 million in the week ended Dec. 23, according to the Energy Department. A 250,000 barrel decline was expected, according to the median of forecasts by 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Inventories of crude oil rose 118,000 barrels to 322.6 million. Stockpiles were forecast to drop 500,000 barrels.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 02:16:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Data doesn't lie (none / 1)

I'm wrong.

It's pretty odd for mogas to be drawing this time of year. But that will get a lot of folks bidding up the entire complex betting that spring will be red hot.

If too many people try to buy say April/May timeframe futures, the only sellers left will be market makers who will hedge by buying the front months. It's not like there is any real shortage of mogas in Feb (the liquid contract now). It's just the only place to get enough liquidity to hedge against the outers.

Also, the price spread from now to April is almost 15 cts/gallon. Some of that is quality differences but the rest implies plenty of supply now, with a lot of speculation that April/May will be very tight. Traders will be working to fill tanks now and hedge to sell in May. Refiners, especially export refiners in Europe, will make summer mogas in winter if a trader offers enough of a premium price.

I was too often on the bearish side. Character flaw.

by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 04:30:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Data doesn't lie (none / 0)

actually data does lie. The DOE/API stats aren't that accurate, but the industry reacts to them pretty strongly.

by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 04:31:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 | 33 comments (33 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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