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So, my thesis is that the same disapproving foreign investors (and hedge funds) will pull out that much, plus the three trillion we've run up since the enthronement of Bush the II, and, it will happen this year. Incrementally, mind you, so it won't be a crash, but a slow motion car accident. It will come in three or four spurts. The first big shot across the bow will happen when Bush rattles his sword (towards Iran and Syria) during the SOTU, and then drops a 100bl IOU note on Congress' front stoop, a clear sign of Bush's continued belicosity and fiscal irresponsibility. The second will be when Iran starts their oil bourse in the spring. Each season throughout the summer, fall and winter will have nauseating steps down, with the collapse of the dollar (2-to-1 euro), $100 bl oil, and 14% interest rates. Domestic prices for gas will go to five dollars, and impeachment hearings will have started.
When all is said and done, the Great Take back of 2006 will leave the Dow at 4,000 and the NASDAQ at 850.
Any takers?
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