Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Well, I will be the bear in this market.  Crude is very overvalued right now, and although one cannot discount the effects of market disruptions, I think we have seen the top of the crude market for a while.  My assumption will be that 06 will look more like 04 than 05.  As of today (Jan 24) WTI is trading near $65 again.  

I believe that the high for 2006 will be early in the year (before March) and is not likely to top $70.  I will give a nominal high of $68.85 for the year.

At the end of 2006, we will see the price hovering around $45-$50...I will give a nominal price of $48.25 for WTI.  This assumes that hurricanes do not take out the priduction areas in the Gulf any more than Ivan in 2004.

Natural gas is in a freefall correction cycle now which will continue through the summer.  We have already seen the high for 2006 on January 3...$10.626 per MMBtu. (Just for fun, my prediction for the year low for NG is around $6.25 in the late Spring...)

Year end, the price of Natural Gas should be around $6.75...my prediction, a nominal price of $6.69.

I'd love to hear your feedback!  :-)

by oilman on Tue Jan 24th, 2006 at 04:53:44 PM EST

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