In a perfect world, negotiations with Ankara would continue on a steady timetable in which incremental progress is made. Ankara would begin seeding the possibility of a genocide recognition 15 years from now. That's how long it would take for the Turkish public to come to grips with the truth. If the Europeans force this down the Turks' throats now, it's tantamount to just excluding them entirely.

I am CONVINCED that the genocide is just a bargaining chip. For many years, the EU was protected by the Greeks and Cypriots who were expected the wield a veto against Turkey. But after "earthquake diplomacy," when the Greeks and Cypriots favored Turkey's inclusion into the EU, the EU suddenly found itself without a basis for excluding Turkey.

The Turks well know that there are a few things that absolutely must be done before they would enter the EU entirely, but that process can take 15 years.