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But make no mistake: Whatever noises of regret are made, the EU, including Schröder or his successor, will sigh in relief if Ankara absolves it of the need to turn over the membership carrot.
(from the diary)

Looks like the EU split is widening - constitution, budget, enlargement - lots of bad news the last few days.  As reported today by the Guardian:

Talks on Turkey's accession, a British priority for its presidency starting in three weeks' time, are due to start formally in October.
The French specifically said they were not seeking to stop those talks. But they are likely to find a ready ally in Germany.

"Poor" Turkey - not only do they have to come clean on the Armenian atrocities - that may not be enough, as they are but a little chip in the high-stakes game we are witnessing.
by ask on Fri Jun 17th, 2005 at 04:11:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Strictly speaking, I would say it isn't enough. There are a lot of structural demands that need to be made in the meantime.

In a perfect world, negotiations with Ankara would continue on a steady timetable in which incremental progress is made. Ankara would begin seeding the possibility of a genocide recognition 15 years from now. That's how long it would take for the Turkish public to come to grips with the truth. If the Europeans force this down the Turks' throats now, it's tantamount to just excluding them entirely.

I am CONVINCED that the genocide is just a bargaining chip. For many years, the EU was protected by the Greeks and Cypriots who were expected the wield a veto against Turkey. But after "earthquake diplomacy," when the Greeks and Cypriots favored Turkey's inclusion into the EU, the EU suddenly found itself without a basis for excluding Turkey.

The Turks well know that there are a few things that absolutely must be done before they would enter the EU entirely, but that process can take 15 years.

by Upstate NY on Sat Jun 18th, 2005 at 07:18:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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