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I don't think you can make this analysis. I'm not going to patronize you and say it is more complex, but the fact is, Turkey is a big country that wields lots of leverage, power, strategic influence. It would demand AND deserve a sizable chunk of the vote. Mexico might come into such an agreement a little bit supplicant because it has no inherent strategic value the way that Turkey does, both geographically, culturally and militarily. Turkey would not supplicate itself whatsoever.

And when you consider that the US is and probably always will be Turkey's biggest ally, then you've effectively invited a fifth column inside Europe's decision making chamber.

Mind you, I am fully in favor of Turkey's joining the EU. But it's not without its pitfalls. I'm not sure you can brush aside genocide so quickly either. It's a horrific think. I'm of two minds on it, however. If it's very important to the continent to have turkey join, then you simply have to ignore the genocide issues. I could be reading it incorrectly, but I do think that's a non-starter.

by Upstate NY on Fri Jun 17th, 2005 at 01:28:48 PM EST
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It will be interesting to see what happens. If Turkey decides that she is not going to get into the EU, what will happen then? She could just do the trade area thing with the EU, or could swing Islamist and re-orient towards the Middle East.

Thank you for not flaming me on my Mexico comparison, which is quite a stretch to put it politely. Mexico's population is about 1/3 of the US's, so it would actually be a bigger addition than the addition of Turkey would be to Europe. It could happen! Although it would have to be one state at a time probably...

My personal opinion is that the 21st century will be a time when very large trading blocs are established. There is no particular reason why all of Canada could not be integrated into the US, for example--if they wanted it.

by asdf on Fri Jun 17th, 2005 at 07:53:58 PM EST
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Personally, if I lived in Canada, I wouldn't want it. That country's yokels are about to be swallowed by a huge cosmopolitan tide that will irrevocably change the nation's character. The US, at this point, would only retard that progress.

Sometimes, the future makes more sense when it's insulated from negative forces. You have to make sure you're pairing with a society that will benefit your own.

In that light, the US would just swamp Canada.

by Upstate NY on Sat Jun 18th, 2005 at 07:12:35 AM EST
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