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Well, I certainly did not say that gasoline prices increased 4 or 6 fold. With taxes being what they are, the increase has been over here a barely noticeable 20/30% (especially when taking place at the same time as we switched to euros, thus blurring references).

On the crude side, prices were in the 10-12$/bl range for a couple of months, so I am technically right but I will agree to the cherry picking qualification. Still, taking 15$ or so as a low level seen in 98-99 does mean that we have seen a fourfold increase in the price of crude since then.

As to whether oil will stay above 100$ immediately or will swing down, I honestly cannot tell, although I think that it soon be durably above that level. For the time being, I am only betting on a spike if necessary - a one second three digit price for any crude oil index will be enough (and symbolically it will be pretty significant as well).

I am putting a fairly close deadline, so we can all be there together to celebrate my predictive powers or not! Maybe we should start a diary to give suggestions for my penance if I lose the wager!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jun 21st, 2005 at 11:53:42 AM EST
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