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Oil futures are still in the $60 range as far as the eye can see. If you believe your theory, then you should sell everything you have and put it into oil futures, thus doubling your money in only a few months.

Or, much more likely, losing it!

True, there's only a fixed amount of oil. However, there's a lot of it still there, and the demand curve is quite elastic. If prices go up, demand can drop quite easily--because oil is mostly used for transportation and there are plenty of ways to reduce consumption with almost zero lifestyle impact. As you know.

A doubling in oil price will take years or decades. We had an artificially low price for the last few years because of the slowdown in the economy, and we needed to make that up, but at this point the cost of oil is pretty stable.

by asdf on Tue Jun 21st, 2005 at 05:17:11 AM EST
There will probably be a short retreat back to $50-55.  Buy futures then.  Given what OPEC has said, their floor is $48.  If you saw $53, the risk would be somewhat less than right now, and even a spike into the low $60's would be extremely valuable.

Do you feel lucky, punk?

Happy little moron, lucky little man. I wish I was a moron, my God, perhaps I am! -- Spike Milligan

by polecat on Tue Jun 21st, 2005 at 06:31:54 AM EST
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