The Party line | 34 comments (34 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

And don't forget to use the official government figures for unemployment boys and girls, or your argument might look a little weaker. This is why I was picking at unemployment statistics in other threads. If the US numbers really should 3% higher to compare them with Germany, they don't look so good and this argument is even sillier.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 02:38:58 AM EST

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

Colman, you're on a roll! Thanks!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 02:43:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

I saw this article last night and didn't do a post on because I knew I'd get so worked up I'd never get to sleep.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 02:51:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I understand - same here :-) (none / 0)

I kept the debunking for this morning, thinking, let's give the "other side" a fair hearing" and avoid the immediate snark or snide comments. I couldn't help the title, I'm afraid...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 05:20:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

If the US numbers really should 3% higher to compare them with Germany

I can't parse that. Could you explain?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 04:32:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

Germany and the US have different official definitions for who is "unemployed."

In both, the fundamental definition seems to be "one who is collecting unemployment benefits." That is, though, where the big difference lay, as German unemployment benefits (pre-Hartz IV, at any rate) are given without time constraint. US unemployment benefits typically run out after 6 months. Americans without jobs get categorized as "discouraged" after a certain amount of time and are statistically dropped from the labor force. In Germany, they remain "unemployed."

Therefore, American unemployment percentages look nicer than German ones would for the same proportion of job-seekers.

I need to do a bit more research on it, but those are the basics.

by Texmandie on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 05:13:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

That's very much true, but we are talking about employment, not unemployment, figures here. Or - Colman, was that 3% you mentioned about unemployment?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 06:06:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

Unemployment. The froth coming out of my ears was making it hard for me to be clear.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 05:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

The German Federal Statistic Bureau published for the first time the unemployment rate and employment/population ratio following ILO guidelines for January 2005 here:

http://www.destatis.de/presse/englisch/pm2005/p0890031.htm

Following these guidelines, probably closer to American guidelines, unemployment in Germany in January 2005 would have been around 9,4%, the employment/population ratio 67.5.

They´ve got a better (and newer ) overview on another page (in German) from January till June.

http://www.destatis.de/indicators/d/arb410ad.htm

2005 employed unemployed Labour force empl./pop. r.
Jun      38,79      3,86     42,66      68,0
May     38,74     4,06 42,80 67,9
Apr     38,65     4,33 42,98     67,8
Mar     38,48     4,30 42,78     67,5
Feb     38,37 4,44 42,81     67,5
Jan     38,33 4,01 42,34     67,4

Apologies for the view. :).

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 09:28:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Party line (none / 0)

I used the German numbers in comparison with US ones for an argument here.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 04:02:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Party line (none / 1)

At the risk of being repetitive, here are some links that have been put up in past threads, plus some related ones:

On "understated" US unemployment numbers:

a piece by Paul Krugman who refers to

a study by Katharine Bradbury [pdf], of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and

this post by Brad DeLong

On "understated" UK numbers: