Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
My rationale? We're near the end of the current runup, because we're nearing the end of the summer driving and cooling season, and there's probably some excess speculation going on.

I suspect we'll hit $70-$75 before the end of the month. Then, as summer demand eases, prices will draw back substantially to around $50. All of the "oil is forever" folks will be claiming victory, despite the fact that $50 is significantly above the starting price for the year.

Then, as we enter November, demand will approach or even temporarily exceed supply. Prices will double to a new inflation-adjusted high, somewhere between $90 and $100. But some of that will be over-speculation and we'll ease off a bit to around $80 by Christmas. The "oil is forever" folks will declare victory yet again. $80 will become the new long-term sustainable price...until next summer and the next push above $100.

by Cascadia Progressive on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 04:13:30 PM EST

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