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My rationale? We're near the end of the current runup, because we're nearing the end of the summer driving and cooling season, and there's probably some excess speculation going on.

I suspect we'll hit $70-$75 before the end of the month. Then, as summer demand eases, prices will draw back substantially to around $50. All of the "oil is forever" folks will be claiming victory, despite the fact that $50 is significantly above the starting price for the year.

Then, as we enter November, demand will approach or even temporarily exceed supply. Prices will double to a new inflation-adjusted high, somewhere between $90 and $100. But some of that will be over-speculation and we'll ease off a bit to around $80 by Christmas. The "oil is forever" folks will declare victory yet again. $80 will become the new long-term sustainable price...until next summer and the next push above $100.

by Cascadia Progressive on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 04:13:30 PM EST

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