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I'd say you're not particularly cock-eyed. The problem is that there are a bunch of unpredictable things that might happen to cause significant changes in the price of oil.

  • If some big bloc's economy collapses, the demand for oil will go down and thus the price go down also.
  • If France comes to her senses and invades Iran (do I have to put a smiley here?) then the supply will be reduced and the price go up.
  • If there is a big terrorist panic somewhere, tourism might be reduced enough to change demand.

It's pretty unpredictable given the current global situation.
by asdf on Fri Aug 12th, 2005 at 07:08:54 PM EST
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