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My instinct is that people are expecting more of the Turkish government than it can deliver right now. Cyprus will be sorted out in the timeframe, and something will be done about the Armenian issue, although I'm not sure what exactly is expected here.

It seems to me that the attacks on Turkish accession are making it harder for the Turkish government to make concessions.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Aug 27th, 2005 at 02:47:35 PM EST
Flip a coin. Who knows if acceding to Turkish deamnds (which I find unreasonable) will make it any likelier that Turkey will join. They make make it less likely, as Turkey may adopt the notion that the EU is willing to negotiate on certain matters which shouldn't be negotiable at all.

The fact is, no one really knows what the future holds. Either way, by pressing concerns now or later, we won't know how Turkey will react until the time comes.

Frankly, I fail to see what will change in five or ten years down the road with Turkey's position on Cyprus. What are the catalysts which can change it?

by Upstate NY on Sat Aug 27th, 2005 at 04:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I failed to address the other side of the coin. It could be that, after negotiations start, Turkey begins serious negotiations on Cyprus. That's a possibility as well. I just don't know what might influence the situation other than a change of hearts, though basing an accession on sentiment is tricky.
by Upstate NY on Sat Aug 27th, 2005 at 04:37:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Turkey isn't getting in unless Cyprus is sorted. They know that. But they can't sort it without something to show for it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Aug 28th, 2005 at 08:46:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree.

  1.  It is in secular, Western-oriented Turks best interest to be part of the EU, with a full solution to the Cypriot conflict, as well as an acknoweldgement of the Armenian genocide

  2.  Turkey is still blockading Armenia, (the bill is introduced by 2 Democratic Congressmen Schiff and Palone) which should be lifted too, which I assume will happen after the recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

  3.  Further, it will create a Muslim society coexisting with the West.  This will be a big blow against any jihadist, Islamist and theocrat.  After all, Osama bin Ladin hates Kemal Ataturk, for abolishing the Chaliphate and establishing the Republic of Turkey.
by ilg37c on Sat Aug 27th, 2005 at 05:16:06 PM EST
"urther, it will create a Muslim society coexisting with the West.  This will be a big blow against any jihadist, Islamist and theocrat.  After all, Osama bin Ladin hates Kemal Ataturk, for abolishing the Chaliphate and establishing the Republic of Turkey."

excuse me but, do you have any support about this fantasy ?

I can not be as optimistic as you are if we extend the actual experience of how turkish/muslims populations are coexisting/behaving in our western society.

why do you expect the trend will be changed ?

the role of Europe is not to solve these kind of difficulties and i do not believe in any war of civilisation.

Osama is not more than a political activist, we have to deal with the questions raised with intelligence and political response, not civilisation war or making a fake europe.

Europe must stay Europe and be focus on her job, not more, i'm totally opposed to any membership of turkey, it's just an nonsense, and noone can build on a nonsense.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sat Aug 27th, 2005 at 11:28:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And your support for your rantings would be?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Aug 28th, 2005 at 08:48:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
.
Sept. 17, 2004 - Nothing new on the horizon

CHIRAC WANTS EU TALKS ON TURKEY'S REFUSAL TO RECOGNISE CYPRUS

The Tocqueville Connection  
PARIS, Aug 26 (AFP) - President Jacques Chirac said Friday that France wanted to discuss with its European Union partners Turkey's refusal to recognise Cyprus, a presidential spokesman said.

The French leader "reminded the president of the (European) Commission that this declaration poses political and legal problems and that it's not in the spirit of what one expects from a candidate to join the Union," the spokesman said. "That's why we want to discuss this with our partners" at the next EU foreign ministers' meeting on September 1-2, he said. Chirac told European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso that France "had questions over the interpretative declaration Turkey added to its protocol of adhesion."

Turkey on July 29 signed an accord extending a customs agreement to the newest EU members, including Cyprus, but declared in an annexe that this did not amount to recognition of the Greek Chypriot government.

Chirac initially enthusiastically backed Turkey on one day joining the European Union, but French voters' fears that the bloc could not assimilate the Muslim country -- expressed in an embarrassing defeat of his May referendum on the now moribund EU constitution -- have prompted him to change course.

His government said earlier this month, that preliminary membership negotiations due to take place with Turkey on October 3 might be put back, if Ankara did not recognise the Republic of Cyprus.

Turkey has said it is upset over France's change of position and asserted that its position towards the Greek Cypriot administration will remain unchanged until a three-decades-old conflict over the island is resolved and the Turkish and Greek communities of the island are reunified.

Turkey only recognises the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, proclaimed in 1983, nine years after Turkish troops occupied the northern third of Cyprus in response to an Athens-engineered Greek Cypriot coup in Nicosia aimed at uniting the Mediterranean island with Greece.

Believe you me - talks on accession of Turkey will start on time: October 3 this year! Or else you will have a full fledged, internal EU crisis on hand.

~~~

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui on Sat Aug 27th, 2005 at 05:23:02 PM EST
One thing about that article that is incorrect. Greece and Cyprus, although they are not necessarily on board with a French ultimatum on the recognition of Cyprus (which presents quite a dicey problem vis-a-vis Cypriot-French relations), are very interested in a European statement which denies the validity of the codicil tacked onto the customs union.

The EU is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't, because if that codicil isn't voided, the EU very well knows that Cyprus will immediately sue in order to force the customs union in effect. In other words, while recognition may not be an issue for Cyprus, commerce and trade are. For one, Turkey doesn't allow boats which have docked in Cyprus to dock in Turkey, which burdens the Cypriot shipping industry. As you can see, the EU will endure a lot of heartburn if the customs union isn't put into effect immediately.

by Upstate NY on Sat Aug 27th, 2005 at 07:22:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I'm mostly in agreement with you Colman:

Some hard negotiation over Cyprus has to happen, it's impossible to have the free trade and free movement of people between two areas that are engaged in such hostility.

Unfortunately, both on this question and the Armenian issue, the government of Turkey has a real problem with the home electorate. There's a substantial constituency that sees little benefit in joining the EU and any possible agreement as damaging to "national pride."

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Aug 28th, 2005 at 11:30:35 AM EST
The government needs negotiations before it can deal with the problems I think: we need to be nice and soft here - we'll win in the end.

Negotiations are just talking: they won't get in until they satisfy the requirements, and Cyprus and Armenia are requirements. I don't understand why people want Turkey to satisfy the requirement for membership before the process starts: we need them to satisfy the requirements in 10 or 15 years. If they satisfied them now we'd just let them in now.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Aug 28th, 2005 at 11:49:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think anyone can say what the best course of action is. While your "soft-negotiation" theory may indeed be the best way to do it, can you envision the pitfalls that go along with it?

I'd like to see Turkey get in as well, but I am definitely an agonstic about it. NY Times journalist Steven Kinzer's book on Turkey is very revealing, especially coming from a Westerner. It's really hard to know if anything has changed with Turkey's government. There is no formal acknowledgement of how the government interrelates with the military. So, at what point and how will the politicans curtail military influence? That's the real question.

by Upstate NY on Sun Aug 28th, 2005 at 09:08:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, no one can predict the future, but there is a school of thought that says the increased prosperity that can come out of EU membership is the kind of incentive/leverage that can give the civil authorities a boost in dealing with the military.

Whether it is right or not, only time will tell, but I do think that the evidence is that the other approach (keeping them more isolated) can backfire and bolster the military too. Thus, to me it seems to be worth a try.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 29th, 2005 at 06:06:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think anyone believes keeping Turkey isolated is a good idea. On the other hand, Turkey is a bit too intransigent on its initial terms for beginning accession talks.

On the subject of Cyprus, Turkey could get away without formally recognizing Cyprus. I don't think they'll be pressed to do that by a majority of nations. But the codicil added to the customs union is a matter which perhaps should not be allowed to stand legally before accession talks begin.

That codicil effectively prevents free trade in SE Europe. Consider, if Turkey begins exports-imports with Europe under the special provisions in the CU, then trade will rapidly increase after Oct. 3rd. Yet Turkey's codicil prevents Cyprus from participating in that trade. Now, Cyprus isn't exactly worried about trade with Turkey, but when you consider that Turkey refuses to allow a ship to dock if it's either stopped at a Cypriot port or else if it's registered in Cyprus, that presents a huge problem for trade. That's why Turkish intransigence on this issue should not be allowed, because the customs union will effectively penalize an existing member. consider what happens when a shipper weighs the vast Turkish market against the small Cypriot market. Obviously, shipping in Cyprus will be hurt because of this customs union if Turkey is allowed to both sign the customs union and then immediately annul it.

by Upstate NY on Mon Aug 29th, 2005 at 11:04:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I agree, but the only leverage I see to get the situation sorted out is a serious offer of membership. The EU has been pretty intransigent with Turkey over the years on a number of issues (I guess it's the way of international diplomats) and so to persuade the Turkish government to take on the populist-nationalist-fringe may require some fudging at the beginning of negotiations.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 29th, 2005 at 03:28:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with your sentiment, but at this point they are so far away from any conceivable solution that I can't see how this will proceed. If we were talking about abstract or hypothetical agreements (i.e. recognition, treaties) then I'd say yes, cut Turkey some slack. But a customs union is really all about commerce and pretty much undergirds the whole reason for union in the first place. Because of Turkey's size, it can do great damage to Cyprus's commercial prospects if it bans commerce with Cyprus.

So, the EU and Turkey are already at a crossroads. Something's got to give.

The way I see it, the EU's biggest weakness is the fact that the leaders are never united. They blew the chance for a resolution of the Cyprus conflict with poor diplomacy, and now think of the mixed messages that are being sent as Britain sees no harm with Cyprus being excluded from a customs union with Turkey while others think it's a huge problem. What's Turkey supposed to think? It's not like they can trust anything the EU says to them. Many in the eU know that if Britain doesn't allow a statement officially critizing the codicil added by Turkey, then the accession talks will be immediately embroiled in legal controversies. These will not be brought by the nation of Cyprus, but rather by the international shipping industry.

In other words, this customs union already puts the EU and Turkey at legal loggerheads with one another.

by Upstate NY on Mon Aug 29th, 2005 at 03:37:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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