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It seems to me that the attacks on Turkish accession are making it harder for the Turkish government to make concessions.
The fact is, no one really knows what the future holds. Either way, by pressing concerns now or later, we won't know how Turkey will react until the time comes.
Frankly, I fail to see what will change in five or ten years down the road with Turkey's position on Cyprus. What are the catalysts which can change it?
excuse me but, do you have any support about this fantasy ?
I can not be as optimistic as you are if we extend the actual experience of how turkish/muslims populations are coexisting/behaving in our western society.
why do you expect the trend will be changed ?
the role of Europe is not to solve these kind of difficulties and i do not believe in any war of civilisation.
Osama is not more than a political activist, we have to deal with the questions raised with intelligence and political response, not civilisation war or making a fake europe.
Europe must stay Europe and be focus on her job, not more, i'm totally opposed to any membership of turkey, it's just an nonsense, and noone can build on a nonsense.
The Tocqueville Connection PARIS, Aug 26 (AFP) - President Jacques Chirac said Friday that France wanted to discuss with its European Union partners Turkey's refusal to recognise Cyprus, a presidential spokesman said.
The French leader "reminded the president of the (European) Commission that this declaration poses political and legal problems and that it's not in the spirit of what one expects from a candidate to join the Union," the spokesman said. "That's why we want to discuss this with our partners" at the next EU foreign ministers' meeting on September 1-2, he said. Chirac told European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso that France "had questions over the interpretative declaration Turkey added to its protocol of adhesion."
Turkey on July 29 signed an accord extending a customs agreement to the newest EU members, including Cyprus, but declared in an annexe that this did not amount to recognition of the Greek Chypriot government.
Chirac initially enthusiastically backed Turkey on one day joining the European Union, but French voters' fears that the bloc could not assimilate the Muslim country -- expressed in an embarrassing defeat of his May referendum on the now moribund EU constitution -- have prompted him to change course.
His government said earlier this month, that preliminary membership negotiations due to take place with Turkey on October 3 might be put back, if Ankara did not recognise the Republic of Cyprus.
Turkey has said it is upset over France's change of position and asserted that its position towards the Greek Cypriot administration will remain unchanged until a three-decades-old conflict over the island is resolved and the Turkish and Greek communities of the island are reunified.
Turkey only recognises the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, proclaimed in 1983, nine years after Turkish troops occupied the northern third of Cyprus in response to an Athens-engineered Greek Cypriot coup in Nicosia aimed at uniting the Mediterranean island with Greece.
Believe you me - talks on accession of Turkey will start on time: October 3 this year! Or else you will have a full fledged, internal EU crisis on hand.
~~~ Amnesia and Gaza Genocide
The EU is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't, because if that codicil isn't voided, the EU very well knows that Cyprus will immediately sue in order to force the customs union in effect. In other words, while recognition may not be an issue for Cyprus, commerce and trade are. For one, Turkey doesn't allow boats which have docked in Cyprus to dock in Turkey, which burdens the Cypriot shipping industry. As you can see, the EU will endure a lot of heartburn if the customs union isn't put into effect immediately.
Some hard negotiation over Cyprus has to happen, it's impossible to have the free trade and free movement of people between two areas that are engaged in such hostility.
Unfortunately, both on this question and the Armenian issue, the government of Turkey has a real problem with the home electorate. There's a substantial constituency that sees little benefit in joining the EU and any possible agreement as damaging to "national pride."
Negotiations are just talking: they won't get in until they satisfy the requirements, and Cyprus and Armenia are requirements. I don't understand why people want Turkey to satisfy the requirement for membership before the process starts: we need them to satisfy the requirements in 10 or 15 years. If they satisfied them now we'd just let them in now.
I'd like to see Turkey get in as well, but I am definitely an agonstic about it. NY Times journalist Steven Kinzer's book on Turkey is very revealing, especially coming from a Westerner. It's really hard to know if anything has changed with Turkey's government. There is no formal acknowledgement of how the government interrelates with the military. So, at what point and how will the politicans curtail military influence? That's the real question.
Whether it is right or not, only time will tell, but I do think that the evidence is that the other approach (keeping them more isolated) can backfire and bolster the military too. Thus, to me it seems to be worth a try.
On the subject of Cyprus, Turkey could get away without formally recognizing Cyprus. I don't think they'll be pressed to do that by a majority of nations. But the codicil added to the customs union is a matter which perhaps should not be allowed to stand legally before accession talks begin.
That codicil effectively prevents free trade in SE Europe. Consider, if Turkey begins exports-imports with Europe under the special provisions in the CU, then trade will rapidly increase after Oct. 3rd. Yet Turkey's codicil prevents Cyprus from participating in that trade. Now, Cyprus isn't exactly worried about trade with Turkey, but when you consider that Turkey refuses to allow a ship to dock if it's either stopped at a Cypriot port or else if it's registered in Cyprus, that presents a huge problem for trade. That's why Turkish intransigence on this issue should not be allowed, because the customs union will effectively penalize an existing member. consider what happens when a shipper weighs the vast Turkish market against the small Cypriot market. Obviously, shipping in Cyprus will be hurt because of this customs union if Turkey is allowed to both sign the customs union and then immediately annul it.
So, the EU and Turkey are already at a crossroads. Something's got to give.
The way I see it, the EU's biggest weakness is the fact that the leaders are never united. They blew the chance for a resolution of the Cyprus conflict with poor diplomacy, and now think of the mixed messages that are being sent as Britain sees no harm with Cyprus being excluded from a customs union with Turkey while others think it's a huge problem. What's Turkey supposed to think? It's not like they can trust anything the EU says to them. Many in the eU know that if Britain doesn't allow a statement officially critizing the codicil added by Turkey, then the accession talks will be immediately embroiled in legal controversies. These will not be brought by the nation of Cyprus, but rather by the international shipping industry.
In other words, this customs union already puts the EU and Turkey at legal loggerheads with one another.
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