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http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/26/22637/7757
Projections of GOM oil/gas projection disruption here: http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL122005_gomex_oil.html
Projected 76% disruption of oil production if the weather models are correct, 41% for 10-30 days, 21% for over 30 days.
They are projecting an overall loss of about 12 million bbl of oil for this storm. The daily production of GOM is about 1.5m bbl/d or so.
It gets worse than this though. From CBS marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF7E49D16%2D0EF9%2D4D05%2D89DF%2D6020DC6793BE%7D&am p;siteid=mktw&dist=
With the storm two days away from landfall, its course is still uncertain. The National Hurricane Center now expects the storm to make a second landfall near the major oil and gas hub at Port Fourchon, La., sometime Monday, and then continue inland to New Orleans. About one-sixth of the U.S. oil supply comes through the Port Fourchon facilities. The port, the only one in the region that handles supertankers, accounts for about 13% of U.S. oil imports. About 27% of U.S. domestic production comes through the port's pipelines. Even a minor disruption in production could send gasoline prices sharply higher.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF7E49D16%2D0EF9%2D4D05%2D89DF%2D6020DC6793BE%7D&am p;siteid=mktw
The deepwater Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, 18 miles offshore, closed its offshore operations Saturday and said it would close onshore operations Sunday. The port is the only U.S. facility that handles supertankers.
This isn't even all of the bad news. A large number of refineries are down in Louisiana. I gather that parts of the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) are in there too - I am on a low-bandwidth connection right now, so it is hard for me to check facts right now.
Crossposted at www.biodieselnow.com
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