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Just to throw a monkey wrench in this...I am having the feeling that Schröder is going to win the election. But then in that case, how does your scenario play out? Would it likely be similar, but only with Schröder deciding?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Sep 15th, 2005 at 05:19:19 AM EST
highly speculative. I still assume that SPD will come in second. But let's play the what-if-scenario (SPD-lead, but no red/gree majority). Various possibilities come to mind:
  1. Despite all reaffirmation against it, Schröder forms a grand coalition. Merkel, as the loser of an election which was a few weeks before a sure win, will be overthrown by her internal enemies (of whom she has many: e.g. Friedrich Merz, Roland Koch, Edmund Stoiber). Her successor (maybe one of the above) will agree to play deputy in a grand coalition under sheriff Schröder, in order to prepare the real takeover for the next elections.
  2. A red/red/green coalition. Highly unlikely, because of reasons (political and personal) I have already named.
  3. Red/green, tolerated by the Left Party. Still unlikely, but not as unlikely as 2. A somewhat awkward model with no real participation for the LP in terms of cabinet posts etc., but with an informal consenus over the issues. The model has been successfully tested on regional state level in Magdeburg (Sachsen-Anhalt). But still, on the federal level, questions of the stability of this combination remain unanswered.
  4. Traffic lights coalition. Let's forget this one quickly. I just can't see how this could possibly work.
  5. Your version, whataboutbob. An interesting one indeed. A weakened Merkel, exposed to her internal enemies, possibly not able to hold grip of the party chair. The CDU/CSU having to find a new candidate quickly, turning the parties into turmoil. I'm waiting for a journalist who asks Schröder your question. I'd really like to hear the answer.
by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Thu Sep 15th, 2005 at 06:08:35 AM EST
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