Looking at the ARD coverage, it seems that the postponed Dresden district election (death of a candidate) could be crucial, since it could determine which party gets the most seats in parliament.

If the SPD gets mosts seats, they can claim to be the biggest party, and thus have a right to provide the kanzler in a grand coalition. If the CDU/CSU gets most seats, this question is open: they can claim they are the biggest, but Merkel's position has been weakened a lot.

I wonder how the election result will influence the people in Dresden, especially if they know they could piush the SPD to have the most seats. My first thought is that, since Schroeder is more popular than Merkel as a person, the voters there might want him as a kanzler in a grand coalition rather than Merkel, and would be inclined to go for the SPD.

I also understand that the FDP has said they wouldn't take part in an Ampel/Jamaica coalition, but they probably will reverse that statement..