In parliamentary seats getting less than 50% of the vote in Bavaria could actually help the Union since it they'd probably get an overhang seat or two.

But this is simply stunning - when's the last time the CSU came under 50% in Bavaria.  I remember that when Stoiber was shooting off his mouth about the Ossis, many commentators said there was method in his madness - rack up massive vote totals in CSU/CDU strongholds that would outweigh any loss in the East. Well, if it really was a deliberate strategy, looks like  it didn't work too well.