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Given the front-page post on the failure of pretty much all the polls in Germany to accurately predict the election results there, what can you tell us about the reliability of the source for these poll numbers.  Is it genuinely reasonable to believe that the figures reported here will resemble the actual vote tallies, or is there a real possibility that these numbers could be off by a similar amount (5-6%)?  It also seems notable that the margin between PO and PiS is 15% in one of the polls, but only 5% in the other (slightly later) poll.  Should observers be concerned that PiS might be peaking right as the election run-up enters its homestretch?
by The Maven on Wed Sep 21st, 2005 at 04:39:23 PM EST
Well I'll be willing to bet that at least one of the polls conducted in the two months or so before the election will somewhat resemble the results :)

Seriously, however, I'm not sure whether the problem is with the polls or the incredible volatility of the Polish electorate.  At this point I am willing to say that it is very likely that the PO will emerge as the largest party and virtually certain that the PO plus PiS will have enough seats to form a majority government. Beyond that - let's see the results on Sunday.  On the other hand I don't see how Kaczynski can become president. Back when he was the favorite, his chances rested on the hope that Tusk wouldn't make it to the second round.

by MarekNYC on Wed Sep 21st, 2005 at 05:06:32 PM EST
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