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Surely there are a couple of very large projects that could generate by tidal power. They could have significant environmental or shipping impact. They might include barrages across the Cardiff Bay and an even bigger one from the north to south coast of the Avon valley - the river has a very high tidal surge. An even more extreme one might be to use the water passing the narrowest part of the Channel/Manche between Dover and the Pas de Calais.  

Do you have any statistics on what excess has to be built into the system to ensure constant supply when the amount available from renewables is low - if there is a long period of calm winds for example?

Like Jerome I would place nuclear fission low on a list of options and would want equal or greater investment in micro generation and renewables. There are considerable resources lying disused in the UK where historically the water courses have been shaped to provide things like mill runs so that water grain mills and later water powered industries thrived. These fell into disuse with the introduction of steam but a lot of the infrastucture is still there if hidden under overgrowth.

by Londonbear on Fri Sep 23rd, 2005 at 08:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no statistics, because this is a case-by-case issue, depending on location, the size of the network, and the types of renewables used. I will only raise a few general points instead. (I note this is based on extensive but still an amateur's read-up combined with what I learnt from my father who is in the (traditional) energy sector, so the professionals here might correct me.)

One is that at present levels of renewables in medium-sized countries (e.g. Germany, the UK, France, to some extent importing-from-France Spain, but not mismanaged Italy), already existing excess capacities are enough. The main reason is that excess capacities were built to be capable to jump in when a large power plant, say a four-block nuclear power plant with 3.2 GW, breaks down - and this excess capacity is even ensured on a regional basis. Intermittance fluctuations are of the same magnitude.

Second, as there are economies of scale, renewables intermittance (the part that is not day/night or seasonal), especially short-term fluctuations, is also reduced in a larger system (at the price of transmission losses) - e.g. when whole weather systems are covered, the wind always blows somewhere. This is of a bit limited worth for Europe, with most wind being along the Atlantic Coast that may have low winds on the entire length, but for example for the USA, most of the intermittance could be balanced thus. (BTW, you may check in real-time the intermittance of Spanish wind power here - where I note Spanish wind is strongly concentrated in one small region, into Galicia province which is the part above Portugal. The average level to compare to is around 25% maximum capacity.)

Third, note that different renewables could balance each other's intermittance. Most directly hydro and wind (as already practised to some extent in Scandinavia): hydro would be run at varied rather than constant power to balance wind's intermittance (something that also revitalises floodplains and the river ecosystem downriver), and the water spared during strong winter winds means higher reservoir levels during summer droughts. For a more distant future,  the balancing of solar and wind is another issue: intriguingly, the day/night and weather patterns of these can be combine to give not a constant power, but one roughly following the daily human usage curve!

Fourth, but this again is an issue for later, there are non-ittermittent renewables that could provide excess in the system: tidal and geothermal. I'm a bit sceptical about the former (low total potential, possible danger to marine life); as for geothermal, it is still rather expensive if we disregard non-renewables external costs, but the potential is there (I wrote more on geothermal, again with a focus on Germany, here).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 08:00:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Supplement to the Spanish curves: the record of this year is an actual generation of around two-thirds of maximum generating capacity; this still means a helluva' lot of intermittance, but how far it is below the potential maximum (which a single turbine achieves from a certain wind speed over a wide speed range, hence is at full power for a significant part of the year) gives a hint at the scale of the existing balance.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 08:20:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Third, note that different renewables could balance each other's intermittance."

This could be an fruitful area of research.  We tend to look at the pros and cons of each type of renewable energy in isolation and each is found wanting in some way, usually for its intermittence or unpredictability.  Much more useful would be a serious search for the right mix of renewables to best meet our needs.

"For a more distant future,  the balancing of solar and wind is another issue: intriguingly, the day/night and weather patterns of these can be combine to give not a constant power, but one roughly following the daily human usage curve!"

I find this idea very interesting.  I would be grateful for any links you might have.

We all bleed the same color.

by budr on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 10:22:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Network operators in Denmark and northern Germany (where they have reached this level for real) and elsewhere (in studies) have stated that 20% of electricity (in kWh terms, not in capacity terms) can be generated by wind with the existing networks being able to cope with minimal investment. More than that would start to require some investment, which has already been assessed.

20% of kWh means a lot more in terms of capacity (MW) as windfarms typically produce one third or less of the kWh of the baseload plants per unit of capacity due to their intermittent nature (i.e. a 200 MW wind farm produces one third of the actual electricity of a 200 MW gas powered plant).

So the cost of intermittence on the system is NOT a valid argument today and will not be for a long time to limit the construction of windfarms.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 08:17:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With Horns Rev repaired and so far a better wind year, in Denmark it could well be 20% this year. (In Germany, in Schleswig-Holstein province, it is already beyond that.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 08:42:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, Denmark has stopped building windfarms, and Germany is slowing down significantly, but the rest of the world has a lot to do to reach that same point.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 02:13:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nitpick: Rasmussen, Denmark's dogmatically neoliberal PM, finally bowed to demands from the industry two years ago, and three more off-shore parks will be built.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 04:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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