The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
Also you're acting as if all of this happens in a vacuum. Yet France's and Germany's policy of cuddling up to Putin has as an inevitable corollary Poland choosing to side witht the US against them and viewing these two countries as strategic enemies.
This is happening in a context where the Polish-German relationship is already quite rocky as a result of German politicians playing to the expellee lobby. (They want a museum devoted to the suffering of the expellees, only problem, allowing the BdV - Federation of Expellees - to run it is a bit like asking some hardline pied noir group to create a huge museum in Paris devoted to their suffering. The history presented is likely to be a tad one sided. The Germans rejected a proposal for a joint group of academics to create a museum.) Polish politicians in turn have reverted to the old virulent anti-German rhetoric of the communist period. A sad development considering the incredible progress of the nineties, including on the expellee issue.
Polish French relations are also far from ideal ever since the run up to the Iraq war where the French seem to have decided to take lessens in effective diplomacy from Don Rumsfeld.
Both the French and to a lesser extent the Germans like to complain that the Poles are an American trojan horse in the EU, yet they themselves seem bent on perpetuating and solidifying Poland's pro - Bush stance.
In any case, for its own security if nothing else, Poland needs to wean itself from its dependence on gas supplies from Russia. Personally I'd favour a combination of renewables and nuclear power (Poland currently has none, courtesy of the Party wiping out its nuclear power program in the anti-semitic purge of 1968).
Actually, I am quite sympathetic to the Polish position viz. Russia, and I am NOT happy at all with Chirac and Schroeder's shameful coddling with Putin, for a number of reasons, including:
The argument that Russia could cut off gas to Poland and not to Germany and the EU would not react is not serious. Cutting gas to Europe, to any country, is an act of war from Russia, let's be very clear about that, and it will be treated as such, unless it's seen as being part of silly underhand games by squabbling local oligarchs allied with various Russian factions, in which case it will be tolerated until it has a macroeconomic impact on the country or a political impact anywhere else.
The gas pipelines are not an asset for oligarchs to play with if you want to be taken seriously as a European country. Get rid of Bartimpex and his boss Gudzovaty, for instance, before blaming the Germans. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Where I disagree with you is that it is crazy to worry about the Russians blackmailing the Poles or that such an event would be certain to produce a strong reaction going beyond words. The Russians have used the energy card in the past against the various FSU states, including the Baltics (before they joined the EU). I can't imagine they are all that worried about an EU where Germany lauds the Chechen elections as a shining example of democracy and France initially complains sotto voce about the Polish led efforts to overturn rigged elections in Ukraine before eventually going along. These are the two most powerful countries in the EU and they have made it clear over the past several years that they place a very large value on close relations with Putin and little value about what the Central Europeans might think. So even if you are right, I would call the situation analogous to Iraq's lack of concern over the US response to an attack on Kuwait. That's why I suggested that it would be a good idea for the EU countries to make a public declaration to both reassure the Poles and warn the Russians that any use of the energy card would have immediate and disastrous consequences, not just diplomatic but practical.
If you think that would be an unnecessary provocation of Russia consider that the Polish political, policy, and media elites are unanimous in viewing the possibility of energy blackmail as a very real threat. Regardless of whether they are correct or not, they will conduct themselves accordingly. I don't want Poland to go down the British 'special relationship' path. I believe that a Poland aligned within a strong EU is in the natural interest of both Poland and Europe. But that's not going to happen as long as the EU's two most powerful countries are seen as the friends of Poland's chief strategic threat - every single action by them will be seen through that prism.
This is probably the case, but I can understand the worries of the Poles on this topic. But hint - don't play the UK card if you want friendly irrevocable words of support form France and Germany.
As to Ukraine, Poland got full access to the EU loudspeaker, so it becomes really bad form and ungratefulness to say that others did not share fully the Polish p.o.v. from the start. Poland made the policy and got full support for it, that's the hard facts. There was no second guessing or underhand diplomacy, so complaints about France's initial reluctance seem silly and provocative to my ears and beg the response "you'll never be happy, so why bother at all".
Poland in in the EU now. It's not temporary, it's real. It brings rights and responsibilities. and yes, France is an arrogant pain in the ass country. Is it really a surprise? In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 16
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 10
by gmoke - Feb 13 1 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 6 5 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 28 15 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 24 14 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 31 3 comments
by gmoke - Jan 29
by Oui - Feb 19
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 18
by Oui - Feb 18
by Oui - Feb 171 comment
by Oui - Feb 1610 comments
by Oui - Feb 168 comments
by Oui - Feb 15
by Oui - Feb 143 comments
by Oui - Feb 144 comments
by gmoke - Feb 131 comment
by Oui - Feb 132 comments
by Oui - Feb 134 comments
by Oui - Feb 126 comments
by Oui - Feb 115 comments
by Oui - Feb 11
by Oui - Feb 9
by Oui - Feb 7