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I suspect an SPD-LP-Greens coalition is impossible.

Forsa's numbers are intriguing, but only if it is not a statistical outlier (check other polls) and the trend continues. For, the little non-proportional slant of the German mixed election system favors the CDU/CSU (with about an extra 2%).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Sep 8th, 2005 at 05:02:38 AM EST
I thought that last election the slight non - PR aspect of the German system favoured the SPD since they managed sweeps in some of the new Laender with under fifty percent of the vote giving them overhang seats. Could well be different this time with the LP winning more direct mandates.

When you say a SPD-LP-Green coalition is impossible is that because of the numbers or due to resistance within the SPD and the Greens? I think that even if it got a slight majority it would still be impossible due to the strong hostility of many within the SPD and Greens to the LP and vice versa.

by MarekNYC on Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 12:33:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The latter. (And at the party member level, the hostility might be greater in the LP than the governing parties - the SPD and Green party leaders are on the other side from the LP within their own parties.)

As for the non-PR element, 2002 was an exception when it didn't play that much of the role - with the SPD's sweep in the East balancing the CDU/CSU's sweeps in the South. You probably recall Unionist complaints on election night that the non-PR aspect stole them the victory as largest party, complaints that proved premature with an end result showing SPD just slightly ahead on list votes. (The SPD's advantage was just 3 seats.)

This year however, (I think jandsm gave us a link I regrettably lost) projections show no SPD direct mandate sweep anywhere, but a CDU one all across the South and central West.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 03:06:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
maybe it was this link. Click on "Wahlkreisprognose" brings you to the direct mandate constituencies map. It has been assumed that overhang mandates will go in favour of CDU/CSU, and this is validated by the map. But: It is dated September 3! I'm courious about the impact of SPD's boost on the direct mandate forecast.
by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 03:54:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, that's it, thanks! So it was you, not jandsm.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 06:06:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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