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Well, I don't know much about the structure of commodity market investment, but the evidence from other investment markets seems to somewhat contradict your thesis.

What I am saying:
The majority of investment is undertaken by people investing other people's money. Thus, their performance horizon is set by bonus schemes and the like and is on the order of 3 months to 1 year.

This pattern has so far held up very well in the oil market, where there is a lot of energy and analysis devoted to short term issues (c.f. Nigeria and Iran at the moment) and trying to judge the timing and length of these disruptions. Very little investment flow has been concerned with longer term issues, despite being pointed up by lots of sources.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jan 22nd, 2006 at 02:47:14 PM EST
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