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The Oil and Gas Journal publishes an annual report on global oil production, which has convenient sub totals for OPEC and FSU (former Soviet Union) production.  I took the total world production for each year and subtracted OPEC and FSU production to find the production from the Rest of the World (ROW).  That includes the western countries, China, Brazil, Angola, etc.  Here is what I found:

Year    World    OPEC    FSU    Rest of World
2000    67233    28100    7896    31237
2001    66746    27034    8421    31291
2002    65426    24462    9180    31784
2003    68507    26800    10114    31593
2004    71243    28746    10826    31671
2005    71793    29343    11278    31172   (estimates)

(Note that this is crude oil production, not total liquids.)

As you can see, ROW production dropped in 2005, after a plateau from 2002-2004.  Regardless of the actual physical peak of production, it looks like the political peak is very near, if not already past.  From here on out, OPEC and the FSU will be setting their own price.

Does anyone have earlier data?  It might be interesting.

by corncam on Mon Jan 23rd, 2006 at 05:38:43 PM EST
Thanks for the data.

  • Russia is plateauing, so FSU increases will mean essentially Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
  • OPEC countries always seem to be able to increase production when they've dropped it before, but they never go beyond the level. Never.

I have graphs and statistics from the most recent issue of Petroleum Economist, but cannot seem to access them in electronic form. It's nominally about required investments, and reserve replacement, but the conclusion is pretty much that they don't really see how production can increase much from current levels. It's scary, as they don't really emphasise it, but it comes through pretty starkly. Basically, they dutifully present the CERA or IEA numbers and show how absurd they are.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 23rd, 2006 at 05:59:48 PM EST
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