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It would be great if Dodo's extrapolation about current marriage rates were correct. Maybe they are. I hope they are. But one cannot use the 2% and 4% figures in the same equation because the census methodology changed: multiracial categories were added, which some people argue provided a one-off boost.

I don't think the allowing of multi-racial self-identification had that much an influence on marriage statistics. If at all, by slightly reducing the tally: losing pairs with a white husband and with a black/white multiracial wife who in 1990 chose "black", as well as with a black wife and a black/white husband choosing "white" in 1990.

Also, my extrapolation from the under-30 figure is not affected by changes in statistics methods. So I think a mid-nineties "current" marriage rate of around 7-10% should be about correct - and still supports your contention about France being (having been in the nineties) a more effective melting pot.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jan 30th, 2006 at 04:13:49 AM EST
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