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It's 155 years at current demand. Assuming demand grows by just 4% per year, over 159 years' worth of the initial demand is consumed in 51 years.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Oct 14th, 2006 at 08:33:44 AM EST
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And if coal is turned into fuel to replace oil, we will run out of coal even sooner.
by Plan9 on Sat Oct 14th, 2006 at 10:05:28 AM EST
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Yes, that is a point...

I looked into it, and first, BP is taking proven reserves. Estimated reserves are 10% higher, but that's not very much. Coal has grown very much over the past two years (around 5%) due almost entirely to China, but the 10-year average is 2.5%.

So if we factor in that coal will have to gradually replace oil and gas as a source of electricity, 4% growth or higher is necessary, otherwise the growth rate it will be lower, I think.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Oct 14th, 2006 at 11:01:40 AM EST
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