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Your point makes sense, but there's a question of what "a better predicted outcome" means. Obviously, an option with a better mean outcome could be worse overall than another, if it has considerably more uncertainty. (I'm just noting the effect of risk aversion here, and the meaning of "better" and "worse" could simply include this.)

In the present case, however, there's no conflict between expectation and risk. As best I understand it, the negative effects of unchecked warming also produce what seem to be far greater risks -- setting positive feedback loops in motion, changing weather patterns, possibly switching off the Gulf Stream...

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Sat Oct 14th, 2006 at 11:15:28 PM EST
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