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As I like neither Fabius nor DSK, I have to swallow the frong and support Royal, as hazy her politics is. I'd liked Jospin, but I wouldn't like him to play spoiler.

Any chance of a President Royal and a PM Jospin?...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:31:58 PM EST
BTW, do the French-resident here agree with Fabius le socialiste repenti? He strikes me as a fake/inner-party populist, not a repentant.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:35:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I have the choice between Fabius and Le Pen, I will abstain.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:38:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because you're a centrit, or because Fabius is such an idiot?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you vote for Chirac?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:41:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, and I regret it. Le Pen at 40% (not because he'd have gotten more voices, but because of lots more blank votes) would have forced to tackle the issue.

Instead, the issue was ignored, and will come up again at this election (where Le Pen will get 20%), and Chirac decided he could ignore everything and everybody - and keep on doing the debilitating nothing he's always done while actually in power (as opposed to running for power, his only competence, because he's good at destroying others)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:44:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We really need to challenge lesser-evilism wherever we encounter it, because it doesn't work.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:50:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I totally agree, but I just cannot imagine the flame war that would occur if this conversation were taking place at a US blog.  I mean, I, who voted for Nader, initially reacted to Jerome's comment by thinking, "And give your vote to Le Pen?!"  Uhg.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire
by p------- on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I still think voting for Nader was the right thing to do, even in 2004.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:02:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the Political Ideals vs Political Realities debate.

After two terms of Clinton people were complacent enough to believe that democracy actually might exist for real, and a vote for an alternative candidate might have an effect on policy.

I suppose it was an understandable mistake.

But still - in real world terms - ouch.

As for France - I don't trust Royal. She reminds me of Blair and Hillary. This is likely to be prejudice based on ignorance, but there's something a little too mythical and not quite human enough about her. She comes across as more of a narrative than a candidate, and I don't trust narratives.

I know nothing at all about the other candidates beyond what people have said in their comments.

Assuming Fabius doesn't get the nod, what are the chances of a Left-ish victory in the main election?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 08:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd give you an 8 if I could: 4 for the political ideals bit, and 4 for articulating my own feelings/thoughts about Royal.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco on Thu Oct 5th, 2006 at 12:42:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The chances in the main election: I think either Royal or DSK stand a fair chance of winning. Both have a centrist appeal Sarkozy doesn't. And the left side of the electorate will probably be motivated by

  • negative feelings re Sarkozy
  • memories of the stinging failure of 2002
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 5th, 2006 at 02:13:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What are the odds of Sarkozy-Le Pen in the second round?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 5th, 2006 at 05:23:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to current polling, they appear low.

Royal and Sarkozy poll at around 30% each in Round One. Le Pen at around 15%, though he can be expected to do better because advance polls always underestimate his real final vote.

What happened in 2002 was not that Le Pen got a surprise high score, it was that Chirac and Jospin did badly.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 5th, 2006 at 05:53:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't have any illusions about voting for "realistic candidates" any longer, or about real democracy rather than Democracy™, so I might as well vote for the candidate I think is best. So far I've been lucky in Spain.

My first general election in Spain was in 1996. I abstained. I was not going to vote for Aznar, I wanted Felipe out (not because I thought he was corrupt but because I thought the PSOE should renovate itself) and I couldn't reward the United Left's [Communist] Anguita's years-long "pincer" with Aznar by which he hoped to damage the PSOE so much that he would take over ("il sorpasso", he called it). The outcome was not bad: Aznar won a slim plurality of seats and needed to make alliances with his hated Catalan and Basque nationalists, bite some bullets, and generally make good of his promised "journey to the centre".

In 2000 I was scared shitless of an Aznar absolute majority and so I voted for Almunia, who was an honest, hard-working former minister and not at all a lesser evil. Nevertheless, PSOE sympathisers were generally depressed after the "primary" experiment had blown up, and 3M socialist voters stayed at home, so my vote didn't make a difference and Aznar got a majority of the seats in parliament and ruled Spain like his private ranch [como un cortijo we would say in Spanish].

In 2004 I voted for Zapatero by post as I was abroad, so I was not influenced by the events of March 11-13. Again a minority government resulted, which has been great.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 5th, 2006 at 05:35:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, a blank vote.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:14:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct, but there is the idea that unless you are actively voting against someone, you are voting for them. Hey, I don't write these talking points...

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire
by p------- on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:23:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would not be as definitive as you on this topic, but I know what you mean.

The lesser evil is sometimes what you should do because it's still a step in the right direction.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If it has enough redeeming qualities to be a step in the right direction, it's not an evil.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:20:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like about 5% of voters, I voted blank for second turn.
by Laurent GUERBY on Thu Oct 5th, 2006 at 02:00:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is he too much of a centrist for you?

He's my personal choice, although I could certainly live with Royal.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:41:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I must humbly admit that I can't retrieve from my memory the specific reasons I put him in the negative bin. I know he's not a Bliarite, so it's not simply that he's too much of a centrist.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:50:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reading through the French Wiki article on him, perhaps entanglement in the Elf affair, the France Telekom row and having read of his misgivings about the 35-hour-week were factors. But am I right to think of him as kind of a notorious self-promoter?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:59:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But am I right to think of him as kind of a notorious self-promoter?

But of course, he's a French Presidential hopeful.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What I had in mind was starting a string of initiatives that are not stupid but also don't seem necessary, e.g. seem to have no other useful purpose than to get him into focus.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:07:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He was slandered in the Elf row. He was totally cleared on this. I'm not sure what you mean about the France Telecom row. As to the 35-hour week, he did fight Aubry on it, then representing the more centrist wing of the party, but I would not be able to give you details of what he fought about exactly. The Aubry/Strauss-Kahn dynamic with Jospin in the middle was actually a good way to govern with both wings of the party heard and placated. You also had the communists and the Greens in the game.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:20:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As to self-promotion, friends in the party seem to tell me he's not doing enough. Like Jospin, he was hoping that people would come to him to ask him to run, and he's been outclassed by Royal's fearless dash for it.

But he is well respected - and a lot of centrists could vote for him (people that could otherwise vote for Bayrou)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 06:22:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DSK is not a notorious self-promoter, (or I must have missed something). In any case, of the three here, he's the least self-promoting...

He's a social democrat with strong associations with policy, efficiency, competence, intellectual capacity, responsibility. He's the closest to Jospin of the three candidates. His choices are sometimes centre-right on economic and business issues.

If he became president, he'd stand a good chance of federating centre-right to centre-left support and of governing France in a stable, efficient way (wouldn't that make a change after Chirac!) He would also be a heavyweight in European politics (and wouldn't that make a change etc!)

Of the three, DSK is the most dependable candidate, meaning that we could be fairly sure in advance what his policies and politics would be.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 5th, 2006 at 01:52:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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