Ségolène Royal chosen as Socialist candidate | 56 comments (56 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: My prediction (4.00 / 5)

How Sarkozy controls most of the media is a question I may touch on if I get time today to finish a piece about Libération. Mainly, though, the answer is twofold: Sarko is N° 2 in the government and the government has influence over public TV and radio, especially TV; the privately-owned media are mostly privately-owned by businessmen who are sympathetic to -- and even persoanl friends of -- Sarkozy.

Le Pen is definitely running, has announced the fact. He may be expected to get at least the 16%-17% he got last time, and quite possibly more. In the first round, that will be votes Sarko will not get. Polls indicate that Sarko will all the same clear 30% in the first round, and therefore get into the second. (Though at this stage, this is not sure -- polls always show a low estimate for the Le Pen vote, possibly because some voters don't want to admit to voting Front National).

Sarko's "work" on law 'n' order 'n' immigration themes was designed to chip away at Le Pen's base. And get that base behind him in the second round. He may succeed in getting more Le Pen voters behind him in Round Two than have previous "centre-right" candidates in presidentials, but his problem now is that he's positioned way off to the right and has left open an avenue, un boulevard, in the cantre. Which Royal and François Bayrou are benefitting from, and Villepin and Alliot-Marie are ogling with appetite.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 02:45:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What's the chance of the left splitting (none / 0)

badly again as in 2002, and causing a Sarcozy Le Pen second round?

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 04:20:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's the chance of the left splitting (4.00 / 4)

I think this clear strong vote for Royal reduces the risk. It seems to me there's an intent behind it: let's not get caught out like the last time. Let's unite behind a good candidate.

Chevènement (sovereignist ie anti-EU left) has announced his candidature again but said he will desist if there appears to be a risk of a Sarko-Le Pen second round. It doesn't seem likely the Radicaux de Gauche will field a candidate (pity in fact, since their candidate, Christiane Taubira, is a black woman and has plenty to say and says it well). The non-PS left is wallowing around in a mess and currently polling weakly. (Pity again, since the Greens are almost disappearing in this mess).

The remaining query is: will Fabius be tempted to run a rogue candidacy? He got 18% in this primary. He's not considered credible by the hard left. He doesn't appear to have a base there on which to run. If he does, it will be a vanity thing. Would he succeed in splitting the vote? Possibly, but he might get a backlash against him.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 04:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, I hope the French voters who are inclined (none / 0)

to the left will will remember 2002 and also Nader's role in 2000 Bush v. Gore. Gore should have won in 2000 even with Nader's running, but he didn't, and that resulted in a major disaster for the U.S. and the world. Chirac in 2002 was not such a catastrophe, since he's an old shoe and not so dangerous as the new shoe which we haven't tried on yet. My wife held her nose and voted for Chirac(I must admit sheepishly that I kind of like Chirac-he reminds me of Carmine DeSapio of Tammany Hall in N.Y. who deliverd a chicken to everyone at Christmas) but it would be torture for her to have to vote for Sarcozy.

P.S. When I was young law student in N.Y. in the early 60's I worked for the Reform Dems to oust Carmine DeSapio. We won and got Ed Koch. I regretted that my whole life.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 05:22:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's the chance of the left splitting (none / 0)

Chevènement is highly unlikely to get the 500 official supports to be allowed to be candidate. Fabius has so far taken a very supportive line wrt Royal.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 09:57:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's the chance of the left splitting (4.00 / 2)

Dominique Strauss-Kahn has made a statement in which he said:

She won, she really won, and everyone will be behind her now.

AFAIK, Fabius has not yet spoken but is expected to do so soon.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 06:27:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Saw Fabius on TV (none / 1)

Fabius was less clear than DSK, but he obviously doesn't seem to be thinking of running as a rogue candidate.

He said it was now up to Royal to bring together the socialists, and he was personally prepared for that. He let it be understood, however, that he expected her to take his more leftish policy planks on board... With, I suppose, the threat behind that of not calling to vote for her come the election.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 06:55:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's the chance of the left splitting (none / 0)

It looks like DSK is out to patch things up with Royal in view of a power-sharing agreement. DSK Prime Minister?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 06:57:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ségolène Royal chosen as Socialist candidate | 56 comments (56 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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