The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact.
she is weak, inconstant, and inexperienced in the ways of the gritty tough real world, because she is a woman.
I think she's perfectly aware of this and will know how to counter it.
Tha narrative we don't hear (because Sarkozy controls most of the media) is that tough-guy Sarko himself can make mistakes. He made a big one by situating himself too far out to the right in hopes of stealing Le Pen's electorate. It's now hard for him to come back in to the fuzzier, warmer zones of the centre.
How does Sarkozy control the media?
He made a big one by situating himself too far out to the right in hopes of stealing Le Pen's electorate.
Is there any possibility that Le Pen will run? If so, will votes for Le Pen significantly cut into votes that otherwise would go to Sarkozy?
Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
Le Pen is definitely running, has announced the fact. He may be expected to get at least the 16%-17% he got last time, and quite possibly more. In the first round, that will be votes Sarko will not get. Polls indicate that Sarko will all the same clear 30% in the first round, and therefore get into the second. (Though at this stage, this is not sure -- polls always show a low estimate for the Le Pen vote, possibly because some voters don't want to admit to voting Front National).
Sarko's "work" on law 'n' order 'n' immigration themes was designed to chip away at Le Pen's base. And get that base behind him in the second round. He may succeed in getting more Le Pen voters behind him in Round Two than have previous "centre-right" candidates in presidentials, but his problem now is that he's positioned way off to the right and has left open an avenue, un boulevard, in the cantre. Which Royal and François Bayrou are benefitting from, and Villepin and Alliot-Marie are ogling with appetite.
Chevènement (sovereignist ie anti-EU left) has announced his candidature again but said he will desist if there appears to be a risk of a Sarko-Le Pen second round. It doesn't seem likely the Radicaux de Gauche will field a candidate (pity in fact, since their candidate, Christiane Taubira, is a black woman and has plenty to say and says it well). The non-PS left is wallowing around in a mess and currently polling weakly. (Pity again, since the Greens are almost disappearing in this mess).
The remaining query is: will Fabius be tempted to run a rogue candidacy? He got 18% in this primary. He's not considered credible by the hard left. He doesn't appear to have a base there on which to run. If he does, it will be a vanity thing. Would he succeed in splitting the vote? Possibly, but he might get a backlash against him.
P.S. When I was young law student in N.Y. in the early 60's I worked for the Reform Dems to oust Carmine DeSapio. We won and got Ed Koch. I regretted that my whole life.
Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
She won, she really won, and everyone will be behind her now.
AFAIK, Fabius has not yet spoken but is expected to do so soon.
He said it was now up to Royal to bring together the socialists, and he was personally prepared for that. He let it be understood, however, that he expected her to take his more leftish policy planks on board... With, I suppose, the threat behind that of not calling to vote for her come the election.
Because another third is controlled by Marcel Dassault, a rabidly rightwing guy (and UMP MP).
Both Lagardère (EADS) and Dassault (Dassault) are big arms groups wholly dependent on State orders.
And the rest is in terrible financial situation and thus dependent on existing State subsidies
In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Frank Schnittger - May 31
by Oui - May 30 10 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 23 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 27 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 5 22 comments
by Oui - May 13 65 comments
by Carrie - Apr 30 7 comments
by Oui - May 3119 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 31
by Oui - May 3010 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 273 comments
by Oui - May 2725 comments
by Oui - May 24
by Frank Schnittger - May 233 comments
by Oui - May 1365 comments
by Oui - May 910 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 522 comments
by Oui - May 449 comments
by Oui - May 312 comments
by Oui - May 29 comments
by Oui - Apr 30273 comments
by Carrie - Apr 307 comments
by Oui - Apr 2644 comments
by Oui - Apr 889 comments
by Oui - Mar 19143 comments