Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I think this clear strong vote for Royal reduces the risk. It seems to me there's an intent behind it: let's not get caught out like the last time. Let's unite behind a good candidate.

Chevènement (sovereignist ie anti-EU left) has announced his candidature again but said he will desist if there appears to be a risk of a Sarko-Le Pen second round. It doesn't seem likely the Radicaux de Gauche will field a candidate (pity in fact, since their candidate, Christiane Taubira, is a black woman and has plenty to say and says it well). The non-PS left is wallowing around in a mess and currently polling weakly. (Pity again, since the Greens are almost disappearing in this mess).

The remaining query is: will Fabius be tempted to run a rogue candidacy? He got 18% in this primary. He's not considered credible by the hard left. He doesn't appear to have a base there on which to run. If he does, it will be a vanity thing. Would he succeed in splitting the vote? Possibly, but he might get a backlash against him.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 04:45:52 AM EST
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to the left will will remember 2002 and also Nader's role in 2000 Bush v. Gore. Gore should have won in 2000 even with Nader's running, but he didn't, and that resulted in a major disaster for the U.S. and the world. Chirac in 2002 was not such a catastrophe, since he's an old shoe and not so dangerous as the new shoe which we haven't tried on yet. My wife held her nose and voted for Chirac(I must admit sheepishly that I kind of like Chirac-he reminds me of Carmine DeSapio of Tammany Hall in N.Y. who deliverd a chicken to everyone at Christmas) but it would be torture for her to have to vote for Sarcozy.

P.S. When I was  young law student in N.Y. in the early 60's I worked for the Reform Dems to oust Carmine DeSapio. We won and got Ed Koch. I regretted that my whole life.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 05:22:05 AM EST
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Chevènement is highly unlikely to get the 500 official supports to be allowed to be candidate. Fabius has so far taken a very supportive line wrt Royal.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 09:57:36 AM EST
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