Just a quick thought on this. DSK was, in earlier previsions, given 35+% of vote against 10 or so% for the re-christened-as-a-true-lefty-during-the-referundum-on-the-constitutional Fabius.

Turns out DSK only got 20%.

As it happens, as out press from this side of the Atlantic notes

Dans la plupart des régions, la candidate remporte une nette majorité. Son vote est particulièrement massif dans le Pas-de-Calais (nord) et les Bouches-du-Rhône (sud). Il est beaucoup plus faible à Paris, château fort de Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

Redstar Translation:

Looks like DSK may have carried Ile de France, but got his ass completely kicked in the rest of the country, especially in the formerly Socialist strongholds of the North (Lille) and South (Marseille and region).

Now, in PACA, this is understandable, few will vote for a Parigo tete-de-veau technocrat same as you won't find PSG paraphernalia on any 13/83/84 cars.

But in the North, this was a direct repudiation of not just DSK, but also the PS of Jospin, Aubry and her father Delors. The PS of the 35-hour initiative, which betrayed working class interests in favor of the urban professional white-collar/functionary set which form the backbone of DSK's support, was rejected. And not for the first time. Jospin owes his loss in 2002 to this, and Aubry, billed as a possible PM five years ago, lost possibly the safest seat for the PS in all of France to this.

That Royal calls in question 35 hours implementation is very much in line with this history, which plays very well to perceptions of class, especially among rank and file left voters, but seems oddly to goo over the heads of many so-called "Social Democratic" voters.

As a final note, I bet the 35% came from looking at Parisian returns, and Parisian journalists assuming the trend would generalise. Standard Parigo attitude. Happily out of touch, though. DSK the technocrat may well have been competitive in Ile de France, but he would get his ass handed to him in most of the rest of France in a general.

I predict a much much less fractured left in these upcoming elections thanks to the massive affirmation of Royal's candidature. Perhaps even Buffet stepping back this time 'round, in favor of some PCF ministries (she was a good one imho). I also would say in terms of PM, Fabius will make a far more logical choice, in fact, than the DSK we can count on the national press mooting, and his immediate rallying to Royal while DSK remains coy speaks to this.


The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill