Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
See my live election blogging in yesterday's Evening Open Thread.

Too much to comment on what you write, this should be fun.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 03:30:03 AM EST
Missed it.

Graduate school I'm finding is very time consuming, and tiring.  And random events keep happening to me, which I'm convinced is a function of my lack of sleep, and the subsequent seepage of my dream world into my awoke world.

So far this week, two false fire alarms.  (Drunk) brother calls upset about fiance leaving, lamentations about never finding a wife.  Father found to be full of shit (literally), they took my father to the hospital because he felt horrible and hadn't eaten for three days.  Turns out he had an impaction.  Have made sporadic attempts to complete lit review of previous 15 years of British Journal of Political Science.  Have finished 1 1/2 years. Shocked to find few authors acutally British, most American.  Called upon to help Asian friend on leave from countries election commission get certification to observe US election, friend is seriously unaware of American culture, sincerely hope he does nothing deportable while observing.

In this context the decision to spend 3 hours writing a diary instead of doing actual work was not hard.  I find the possibilities of an CiU-ERC coalition or a grand PSC-CiU coallition interesting, either departure from the tripartite has serios ramifications.

In the case of a CiU-ERC, there push for Catalan autonomy will grow stronger and the link to the greater Spanish political context may be severed.  If the PSC becomes marginalize to the gain of the ERC, then Cataluna becomes poltically distinct from Spain.  In the long term this augurs seperation as the development of a party system confined to the Catalan context can do for Cataluna what the dominace of the PNV has done in the Basque Country.

On the other hand, a ERC-CiU coalition means that the ERC is marginalized, and the link to the national context strenghtened.  If the ERC is made less important, Cataluna becomes reliably socialist in national elections.  With the dominance in Andalucia, PSOE would have a lock on 30+% of the Spanish vote, and with the PP grip on Madrid slipping, that means that the PP ceases to be a national party.  The marginalization of the PP to the Castilles could lead to 12-16 years of PSOE rule.  Like happened with Gonzalez, and the right would be forced to reorganize.  I forsee that an extreme blantly fascist right could develop like the French National Front, and in the long term the rump PP, likely reorganizing as Christian Democrats would move to the center.

Future Spanish political arrangments are more likely to look like Germany than Italy, with the gains of Zapatero consoldated.  Spain is no longer merely in Europe, it is of Europe.  And Zapatero is putting Spain at the forefront of a coming move to the left in European politics.

Blair's and Schroeder's third way has been repudiated, the Left will rise again.  The triumphalism of libertarian capitalism in the wake of the collapse of the Berlin wall is going to be called on.  And once it's deficiences are expose there will be hard times.  Returning to a sustainable (socially and economicaly) politics will mean significant change.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:27:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On the other hand, a ERC-CiU coalition means that the ERC is marginalized

You mean "PSC-CiU coalition".

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 05:04:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it's 6 AM and I've been up for 24 hours.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 05:58:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Once you pass your qualifiers you'll be a much happier and prolific blogger.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:02:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm fairly certain I've figured out a simple way to describe 95% certainty to laymen, 2 standard deviations in a normal distribution.  If you draw them pictures they will understand.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:35:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And 99% confidence is 3 standard deviations.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:15:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series