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The CiU faces little competition for Catalan right votes from the PP, but the ERC faces a more serious threat from the PSC.  In the event of an CiU-ERC coaliton, if the ERC is able to marginalize PSC by forcing Madrid to rein in the PSC affiliate, the may be able to shake free another 10-15% from the PSC vote total.  That would create a distinct, divergent nationalist, and left right cleavage.

Conceptualizing the vertical axis as the nationalist cleavage, and the horizontal as the left right you get the following:

                     Nationalist                    
                     ERC  |  CiU
               Left ==|== Right
                     PSC  |  PP                    
                   Anti-Nationalist    

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:25:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn formatting.

2nd try.

     Nationalist                
     ERC  |  CiU
     Left =|= Right
     PSC  |  PP                    
   Anti-Nationalist

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:31:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think ERC competes with ICV on the left, and that PSC is more threatened by Ciutadans.

The PSC is going to have its electoral space eaten away because it tries to be all things to all people while ICV, ERC, C, and CiU have a narrower focus and thus a clearer message.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:34:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On the Left/Right axis, I think that ERC is to the right of ICV, and to the left of PSC. If ERC moves to the center, they can draw from PSC among those who are Catalanist.  Because around 30% of the population are immigrants, charnegos, that suggest that if left nationalist were to gravitate towards the ERC, the PSC could lose 10-15%.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:51:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think ERC is more radical left while ICV is more on the green/refounded communist side. So I'd still call ERC extreme left. Green is in its own separate axis.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 07:05:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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