Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
A quick comment as I'm on holidays and I've not followed the election campaign because I was in the Canary Islands, and i'm leaving today again to Tarazona. So maybe migeru and mfm are better informed than myself.
The low turn-out is the most significant feature along with the ICV winning of three seats. Low turn-out because we have voted 5 times in 4 years, I think.
Ciutatans (C) is a confusion party, they said they are left but they've got support from la Cope, El Inmundo and Esperanza Aguirre. Somehow, they are more rabid (anti-catalanist) than catalan PP. It's only clear message is "Catalonia IS Spain". They attracted the pissed off vote (very young candidates, young voters, I guess), they've got nearly 89.567 votes out of total 2.959.027.
PSC lost because Maragall has big carisma and Montilla doesn't. CiU went up 1 seat and no more because its leader, Mas, is mediocre and they have run a dirty campaign. ICV was the party representing the good values of the "tripartit" and they went up in more than 40.000 votes.
Possible coalitions:
Again tripartit PSC + ERC + ICV
Grand Coalition CiU + PSC (ZP's favorite)
Nationalist Bloc CiU + ERC

Cheers, I've to run...

by amanda2006 on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:14:41 AM EST

Electoral fatigue.  Turnout tends to suffer when voters are asked to vote often, and the more elected positions the greater the decline.  I'm thinking of doing research in this area for my thesis.  In America we vote a minimum of 6 times in a 4 year cycle, with 20-30 positions elected in each election.

Your analysis of the Catalan political situation is spot on.

I did not know that Ciutadans had support from Cope and El Mundo, very odd.

I thought that ICV was part of the tripartit.

I think that in the long term it makes a huge difference whether the coalition is CiU-ERC or CiU-PSC.

If CiU-ERC, this will lead to a nationalist path, and Cataluna will become like the Basque country with local politics largely divorced from the national context.

This would also really piss off the PP, and more importantly sections of the military might feel the need to move to protect the unity of the country.  The Spanish (Catalans included) seem slow to rise, but when they do the response is dramatic and often traumatic.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:43:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, ICV was part of the tripartit and the party more willing to form it again.
by amanda2006 on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:59:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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