Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Some random thoughts that came to me:

  • Should the SP be part of the government, that may be the end of their steep upward trend. They are a protest/populist party, and so far have been able to give their view from the left without having to compromise. If they become part of the government, they will have to defend the compromises they made to their voters next time around, which is much harder for them (since, comparitively, they will have to compromise the most).

  • I don't think the CU will try to go for abolishing abortion, gay marriage or euthanasia. Only the Christian parties would support that, and they are in the clear minority. As such, the CU can't possibly put those on the table. Perhaps they might try for stricter rules on abortion or euthanasia, but that's also a hard sell. Of course, I wonder what the CU would want to "score" on then, if they enter a CDA-PvdA-CU coalition.

  • Given that 4-party coalitions are a really bad idea, and a minority coalition is an even worse one in this environment, it will have to be CDA+PvdA + either CU or SP. No government without both CDA and PvdA is possible. That means that they hold the best cards. I think it will basically come down to the CDA trying hard to get the CU in, and the PvdA trying hard to get the SP in.

  • Predicted formation time: 5 months.
by Frank (wijsneus-aht-gmail-doht-com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:48:11 PM EST
5 months!?!?!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 04:13:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Last time, it was four months.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 04:21:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
SP governance: could be. But they don't do that poor in the counties where they are now in the city council. Of course, perhaps disillusion hasn't set in yet?

Rouvoet (CU) has the most intersting position this time, especially failing SP negotiations. Now let us see how sincere he truly is with power at his grasp (because he's perhaps one of the the most sincere politicians we have).

I'm still hoping on a SP-CDA-PvdA coalition, but I agree with your analysis of the of CDA & PvdA preferences. Your predicted formation time: not so sure, with another upcoming election at hand?? But it may take so long, if people get stubborn...

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 10:21:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the SP has been doing well in city councils. But, local politics is quite different.

For example, there has always been a number of local parties that don't even exist at the national level, and can't make the jump to the national level very well (like the "Leefbaar" parties).

Local elections are a different kind of game, more different kinds of coalitions are possible, issues are easier.

by Frank (wijsneus-aht-gmail-doht-com) on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 11:49:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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