Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Some random thoughts that came to me:

  • Should the SP be part of the government, that may be the end of their steep upward trend. They are a protest/populist party, and so far have been able to give their view from the left without having to compromise. If they become part of the government, they will have to defend the compromises they made to their voters next time around, which is much harder for them (since, comparitively, they will have to compromise the most).

  • I don't think the CU will try to go for abolishing abortion, gay marriage or euthanasia. Only the Christian parties would support that, and they are in the clear minority. As such, the CU can't possibly put those on the table. Perhaps they might try for stricter rules on abortion or euthanasia, but that's also a hard sell. Of course, I wonder what the CU would want to "score" on then, if they enter a CDA-PvdA-CU coalition.

  • Given that 4-party coalitions are a really bad idea, and a minority coalition is an even worse one in this environment, it will have to be CDA+PvdA + either CU or SP. No government without both CDA and PvdA is possible. That means that they hold the best cards. I think it will basically come down to the CDA trying hard to get the CU in, and the PvdA trying hard to get the SP in.

  • Predicted formation time: 5 months.
by Frank (wijsneus-aht-gmail-doht-com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:48:11 PM EST

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