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over 30-50 years, it is very likely that the amount needed infrastructure, agricultors support (70% of the population) reaches several trillions. Turkey is even poorer than romania but more populated than all others eastern-europe countries together.
Now, Turkey has a nominal GDP/capita of 5062 euros compared to 4539 for Romania and 3459 for Bulgaria. When adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, however, these numbers are reversed, Bulgaria gets the most and Turkey the least. I don't know what is used as the basis for the Commission's calculations, though, the budget uses GNI, but I don't know if the same number is used for the structural funds. Turkey has a strong economic growth, which has outpaced that of Bulgaria and Romania for the past 5 years. Although it will roughly equal when adjusted for the change in population.
Before Turkey enters, the EU will hopefully have changed its Common Agricultural Policy so that it can deal more flexibly with newcomers. The arrangement for the 2004 entrants can otherwise be replicated here: they are being fased in very slowly, they now get funding at about 25% which will slowly climb to full funding in 2013. The EU will also need to reform its institutional architecture, so that we will have only double majority voting in the Council (voting by a majority of states representing a majority of the population).
Turkey will not find its votes to be of much use if it can't build effective majorities. It will only be able to block some things, but it won't be able to shape common policies. Much like the UK. Turkey's power will also be diminished by the fact that it will initially be receiving a lot of money.
I agree with you that the 'improving relations with muslims' angle is wrong. I tried to outline my argument for allowing Turkey in here.
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