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I agree on a lot of what you say, but on the other hand there is no way to know if any of your predictions will come true. In fact, count me surprised by the number of exigencies the EU is already considering in Turkey's accession. It could very well be that Turkey Europeanizes certain parts of its current political culture.

I was initially all for Turkey joining, and I probably still am, but I am definitely trending toward the Turkey-skeptics. Not for the reasons fred mentions, but simply because I foresee Turkey entering with a host of exceptions to EU rules, and though I don't see it holding a lot of political sway, I see the EU lawyers and courts working overtime to maintain unity as various countries begin breaking the bounds of propriety. In other words, I see it as a possible trojan horse.

by Upstate NY on Mon Dec 11th, 2006 at 08:09:06 PM EST
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IMHO there won't be any further accessions until maybe 2019, and that is precisely because of the need to digest the last bellyfull of trojan horses.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 05:20:03 AM EST
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why 2019 ??

The target is closer and i dont see why eurocrats/politicians will not allow Turkey to be european before 2013 (tomorrow). we ve seen with all previous enlargements that the process is fast and criterias do not matter.

Fortunately the NO slow down a bit the process.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 02:28:44 PM EST
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You're right that there is no way of knowing if my predictions come true, all I have to go on is current trends which can always be interrupted. The beauty of the enlargement process, however, ensures that Turkey has to be ready (on the criteria set) when it comes to actually joining. I don't think it will be granted a host of exceptions, or if any exceptions apply I think it will feel the consequences (like not getting as many funds, not enjoying freedom of movement for its population, etc.)

There are sanction mechanisms within the EU for countries who 'break the bounds of propriety'. For instance, if Bulgaria doesn't clean up corruption in its courts a, it runs a very serious risk of being excluded from legal cooperation, which will be a slap in the face.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 05:24:45 AM EST
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One of my concerns is this. If a deal on Cyprus ever comes about, the gov't of cyprus will have toa ccept a host of derogations to the EU's acquis communitaire as a concession to Turkey. Once this happens, you will have effectively allowed exceptions to the bedrock of EU principles in certain situations. Turkey is large enough and important enough a country to ask for similar derogtaions in Turkey proper, especially dealing with the Kurdish issue.
by Upstate NY on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 09:32:56 AM EST
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If a deal on Cyprus ever comes about, the gov't of cyprus will have toa ccept a host of derogations to the EU's acquis communitaire as a concession to Turkey.

Such as?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 10:14:53 AM EST
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See here.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 10:16:36 AM EST
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Thanks.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 10:23:41 AM EST
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To summarise: Free movement of persons would be restricted for Greek Cypriots (but not for other people).

A selective application of the free movement of persons would indeed violate the acquis. But I think that this problem can also be worked around. The free movement of persons has after all also been restricted for the new entrants in 2004 and will once again be restricted for Bulgarians and Romanians when they enter next January 1st. An arrangement is not impossible, provided that it is transitional.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 10:28:35 AM EST
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The issue of property rights from before partition is also a sore point, but it doesn't violate the acquis, I don't think.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 10:39:56 AM EST
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So basically restrictions on the right of free movement and property ownership? Was that a time limited thing or intended to last forever?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 10:25:45 AM EST
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Time limited to 20 years.
by Upstate NY on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 11:08:25 AM EST
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Then that's just normal practice, in so far as there are many instances of time limited exceptions to the acquis in accession situations. It's an unusual one and pretty nasty, but it doesn't seem like it establishes any new principle.

There is one almost guaranteed to apply to Turkey when/if it joins: Turkish will not have freedom of movement to work for some time, just like the recent accession countries.

Though technically that's possibly not an exception to the acquis, it seems the same in practice: the rules don't always all apply immediately to new accession states and there are all sorts of time limited exceptions to things.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 11:16:19 AM EST
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20 years is a bit much, but that can be negotiated down to 7, probably.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 11:22:36 AM EST
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But, we're talking about the same country. This isn't Turks going to work in Belgium. This is Cypriots going to work in Cyprus.

This isn't so much an issue of the lack of freedom of movement as much as it touches upon property rights, the right to commerce. A lot of the properties in the north were owned by displaced Greek Cypriots, and it's those limitations that have been problematic. In other words, people with land there, people who grew up there, are not allowed to move. As I wrote in the thread that Migeru linked to, Cyprus and Papadapoulos have already agreed to a limitation on movement in the 2002 Annan deal. This would apply to Greek Cypriots who do not have their origins in the north. In the 2004 deal, there was also a limitation on property owners AND, as well, the gov't of Cyprus would have to cover any restitution to these property owners, out of their own tax base.

Regardless, given the happenings this week, I'd say that for Cyprus, entering the EU has been a bad deal, and they certainly haven't gained from it, and likely won't. I'm starting to think they would have been better off outside the EU precisely because they have been blamed now for the partition. Before the referendum during the week of accession, they had the world's sympathy. Outside the EU, an agreement would have had to have been made based on reciprocal negotiations, but inside the EU, or together with accession, the reunification deal was negotiated by others. Their economy, such as it was, really doesn't gain much from the EU since it relies on 3 factors, two of which have been curtailed somewhat by accession.

by Upstate NY on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 12:45:39 PM EST
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Right on cue, an article comes out with regard to EU accession an following the rules.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/12/12/news/EU_GEN_EU_Summit.php

BRUSSELS, Belgium: With Turkey's membership talks partially frozen, the 25 EU leaders open a two-day summit Thursday where the bloc will signal to a half-dozen others waiting on the porch that they, too, should not bank on EU leniency if they want to get through the front door.

The no-pushover message became easier to give to aspiring EU members after foreign ministers overcame internal differences Monday and drew a line in the sand for Turkey for refusing to open its ports to trade with EU member Cyprus.

It makes me wonder, however...if you're not a pushover, then why the need to issue "no pushover" messages at all? Do future EU candidates really think the EU is a pushover? Isn't such a warning redundant?

by Upstate NY on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 02:33:54 PM EST
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I think the "no pushover" warning needs to be given because of the way the expansion from 15 to 27 has been made, especially the way that Romania and Bulgaria have been given the go-ahead despite not being fully ready.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 07:02:05 PM EST
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"The beauty of the enlargement process, however, ensures that Turkey has to be ready (on the criteria set) when it comes to actually joining"

unfortunately we ve seen with bulgaria/romania cases that criterias are quite flexible and when there is a political will, criterias do really not matter.

without the NO at the constitution i am pretty sure, Turkey would have qualified quite fast.

there is no guaranty that criterias will be respected, past enlargements did not.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 02:22:22 PM EST
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Bulgaria and Romania were originally also slated for entry in 2004, but this was postponed by nearly three years as it was apparent that they weren't ready. Romania, now is almost ready (officially, only technicalities remain), but Bulgaria is still quite far from being ready. The EU could have postponed Bulgaria's entry by one more year, but it has opted to include both countries at once and impose heavily restrictive terms instead.

Turkey was never going to enter before 2013 because of the necessity to make adjustments to the budget. But Croatia was semi-slated for entry in 2009, which will now probably have to wait a bit longer. The internal political reasons for wanting to slow down Turkish entry would still have been there as well and these exist in enough countries to form a blocking minority. The no to the Constitution has probably made the matter more urgent...

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Dec 12th, 2006 at 02:42:30 PM EST
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