Iran is full of shit when it proclaims that its nuclear program is all nice and peacefull. It's plain false (or the Iranians have really no clue what they are putting their money into). Their program is for military use.

Those who proclaim that the sky is falling are also full of shit. Iran is nowhere near having a bomb. At least 10 years away, or, assuming that it throws at it every bit of money and resources it has (and starve its population to death), makes no attempt to hide the program from the rest of the planet and get every technical detail right on first try, a strict minimum of 5 years.

This seems well said, and many agree with this point of view.  I'm certainly not knowledgeable enough to take it on.  But,,,,,,one's intelligence is never perfect, and gaining consensus on an opinion will be difficult--so you'll have to have some probability range around this.  Like for example, they can accomplish this under cover in 5 years--maybe people would take that as a worst case option.  I think Colman is looking for a problem statement like that, so we can move on to "now what do we do?"