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That might be, but there are certainly indications pointing towards Iran wanting to conceal parts of their nuclear program and possibly aspiring to widen their program from civilian to military purposes:
Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told diplomats that his inspectors had recently obtained documents from Tehran showing that the Iranians had been given various instructions on processing uranium hexafluoride gas and casting and enriching uranium. These had been obtained via the black market in nuclear technology headed by the disgraced Pakistani scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan. Informed diplomats said the blueprint for casting uranium was required in making the core of a nuclear warhead, although that alone was not enough for the manufacture of a weapon.
Informed diplomats said the blueprint for casting uranium was required in making the core of a nuclear warhead, although that alone was not enough for the manufacture of a weapon.
The story dates back to the Clinton administration and February 2000, when one frightened Russian scientist walked Vienna's winter streets. The Russian had good reason to be afraid. He was walking around Vienna with blueprints for a nuclear bomb. To be precise, he was carrying technical designs for a TBA 480 high-voltage block, otherwise known as a "firing set", for a Russian-designed nuclear weapon. He held in his hands the knowledge needed to create a perfect implosion that could trigger a nuclear chain reaction inside a small spherical core. It was one of the greatest engineering secrets in the world, providing the solution to one of a handful of problems that separated nuclear powers such as the United States and Russia from rogue countries such as Iran that were desperate to join the nuclear club but had so far fallen short. The Russian, who had defected to the US years earlier, still couldn't believe the orders he had received from CIA headquarters. The CIA had given him the nuclear blueprints and then sent him to Vienna to sell them - or simply give them - to the Iranian representatives to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
To be precise, he was carrying technical designs for a TBA 480 high-voltage block, otherwise known as a "firing set", for a Russian-designed nuclear weapon. He held in his hands the knowledge needed to create a perfect implosion that could trigger a nuclear chain reaction inside a small spherical core. It was one of the greatest engineering secrets in the world, providing the solution to one of a handful of problems that separated nuclear powers such as the United States and Russia from rogue countries such as Iran that were desperate to join the nuclear club but had so far fallen short.
The Russian, who had defected to the US years earlier, still couldn't believe the orders he had received from CIA headquarters. The CIA had given him the nuclear blueprints and then sent him to Vienna to sell them - or simply give them - to the Iranian representatives to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Iran has spent nearly 20 years trying to develop nuclear weapons, and in the process has created a strong base of sophisticated scientists knowledgeable enough to spot flaws in nuclear blueprints. Tehran also obtained nuclear blueprints from the network of Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, and so already had workable blueprints against which to compare the designs obtained from the CIA. Nuclear experts say that they would thus be able to extract valuable information from the blueprints while ignoring the flaws. "If [the flaw] is bad enough," warned a nuclear weapons expert with the IAEA, "they will find it quite quickly. That would be my fear."
"If [the flaw] is bad enough," warned a nuclear weapons expert with the IAEA, "they will find it quite quickly. That would be my fear."
If, in theory, Iran does want nukes, the motivation is what the PNAC seems to have acknowledged (see Migeru's quotes): deterrence, not threat. Threat makes no sense when you have a few nukes, and delivery systems that will instantly identify you as the sender, but your opponent has hundreds (Israel) or thousands (USA) of nukes for a counterstrike to eradicate your entire country. On the other hand, since both Israel and the USA do openly threaten Iran militarily, and the USA 'encircled' Iran from all sides, deterrence does very much make sense.
I would say both deterrence and threat. Deterrence against the US and possibly Israel and posing a possible threat to the neighbouring regimes and even the possibility of extending their influence into Iraq, Lebanon and some of the Gulf States under the nuclear umbrella, which could lead to a possible arms race in the region.
(.....)But the main obstacle to stopping the spread of nukes is the hypocritical love of nukes by existing nuclear powers (including France, hint hint). As long as they don't show any inclination to plan to dismantle their arsenal (which would be their obligation under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, BTW), others will have a motivation to get ones themselves.
Yes, I do agree that the lack of nuclear disarmament is an obstacle to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, but according to the first article of the NPT, the first priority seems to be the issue of non-proliferation. This because if disarmament was the priority then a dozens of new countries would be nuclear powers before we had finished disarming just a few, and the disarmament would have been for nothing.
Even so, I do find many of your points intriguing and being quite plausible reasons for the seemingly defiant mood of the Iranian regime. Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
Informed diplomats said...
Where have I seen that before
More from the second:
The Russian soon found 19 Heinstrasse, a five-storey office and apartment building with a flat, pale green and beige facade in a quiet, slightly down-at-heel neighbourhood in Vienna's north end. Amid the list of Austrian tenants, there was one simple line: "PM/Iran." The Iranians clearly didn't want publicity. An Austrian postman helped him. As the Russian stood by, the postman opened the building door and dropped off the mail. The Russian followed suit; he realised that he could leave his package without actually having to talk to anyone. He slipped through the front door, and hurriedly shoved his envelope through the inner-door slot at the Iranian office. The Russian fled the mission without being seen. He was deeply relieved that he had made the hand-off without having to come face to face with a real live Iranian.
The Russian fled the mission without being seen. He was deeply relieved that he had made the hand-off without having to come face to face with a real live Iranian.
Gjermund, this is weaker than weak evidence. The rest of the Guardian article is pure speculation. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Well, if you had no ambitions of developing nuclear weapons why not be upfront with this information and hand it over to the IAEA at once and not wait almost a decade before you more or less are forced to admitting having such a document?
The NPT doesn't only prohibit purchasing equipment for nuclear weapons, but also refrain from what can be seen as seeking the assistance of others in developing such weapons:
Article II Each non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes not to receive the transfer from any transferor whatsoever of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or of control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly; not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; and not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.
Each non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes not to receive the transfer from any transferor whatsoever of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or of control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly; not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; and not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.
If you are going to measure every foreign policy issue in the Middle East to what happened prior to the Iraq invasion in 2003 and automatically dismiss it as propaganda, well then it wouldn't be much point in dealing with the Middle East at all and much less trying to uphold the NPT in that region.
The IAEA has found Iran's failure to inform of its nuclear program, its admitting of acquiring blueprints on how to cast Uranium metal into nuclear warheads and the failure to disclose the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak, only admitting it when the secret was disclosed by others, so disturbing that they have found it necessary to report it to the UN Security Council.
Gjermund, this is weaker than weak evidence. The rest of the Guardian article is pure speculation.
I have to agree that it is certainly no conclusive evidence, but all those incidents but together doesn't paint a to rosy picture of the Iranians intent when it comes to the nuclear question, something which even the IAEA seems to agree with, which was not the case prior to the Iraq invasion in 2003. That is why their motives have to be scrutinized and treated with utmost suspicion. Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
As I pointed out elsewhere in the thread, the IAEA requires notification six months before coming on-line of such facilities. (The IAEA delegation first visiting the facilities in 2003 did point that out.) The heavy water production facility was supposed to come on-line last year. Also note that the Arak facilities were originally to be sited at Esfahan, and the decision to move them seems to be related to the need of much water that is awailable at Arak.
posing a possible threat to the neighbouring regimes
Since those neighbouring regimes are under the US umbrella, in fact the two largest neighbours are under US occupation and two more plus three near-neighbours across the Persian Gulf have US troops stationed at bases, attacking them with nukes would be responded by the USA.
the first priority seems to be the issue of non-proliferation.
I don't think you can deduce the level of importance or the order in time of fulfilling obligations from the numbering of articles. On the other hand, I submit you do have a point in that the wording of Article VI points not to the immediate future, in fact demands a separate new treaty on disarmament - but that "at an early date".
if disarmament was the priority
Disarmament was the end goal, and my argument is that disarmament of existing states and non-proliferation go hand in hand: dozens of new countries would not have the incentive (or at least have lesser incentive and rhetorical excuses) to turn nuclear if disarmament of the rest would be on-going (or at least they stopped issuing first-strike threats).
Even so, I do find many of your points intriguing and being quite plausible reasons for the seemingly defiant mood of the Iranian regime.
Upon re-reading I often find my own words offensive-sounding, while when I wrote them it was just a terse way of putting my opinion, and when there were points of agreement I haven't acknowledged them. So hereby I also state that I, too, find your points, and also points of others I responded to critically, intriguing and worth for consideration. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Well, you seem to have more faith in the US nuclear umbrella guarantee for the Middle East than I have. On the contrary I doubt the US would use their nukes if such a scenario were to happen and if they were to be protected by the US nuclear umbrella it is of little consolation to have that kind of guarantee when been nuked. The proliferation of nuclear weapons would undoubtedly lead to fear and fear was and still is one of the main components in the outbreak of an arms race.
Yes, I do agree with you when you say:(.....)disarmament of existing states and non-proliferation go hand in hand(.....), still it is a fact that we have been living with nuclear weapons controlled by certain states without them ever being used since 1945, even when the doctrine of first strike was introduced and no European country, except from France and Great Britain, developed nuclear weapons capability during that time even if the threat of war and the level of fear was very real. That is why I find the argument of fear being somewhat circumstantial and possibly being used as a front in covering up other agendas.
Upon re-reading I often find my own words offensive-sounding, while when I wrote them it was just a terse way of putting my opinion, and when there were points of agreement I haven't acknowledged them. So hereby I also state that I, too, find your points, and also points of others I responded to critically, intriguing and worth for consideration.
Well, I have never found your comments here on ET offensive, on the contrary, I have always read your comments with utmost interest. Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
Well, one important question would be how far in advance did the intelligence community know, before this information reached the IAEA? If the NCRI came to the US intelligence community with this information prior to informing the IAEA then it could be a matter of weeks or months in advance and that would be just speculation. More realistically the US intell. community picked this bit of information up from Intellsats. Still, the failure to inform the IAEA lays not on the US intell.community, but solely on the Iranians. Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
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