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The latest US NIE seems to put it at 10 years, not 5 (nor 5-10), due to the problems Nomad mentioned. (Not that I believe there is proof that a nuke is the end goal, just sayin'.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Feb 18th, 2006 at 11:55:27 AM EST
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That's why it's important to stress what the 5 years figure really is : a CYA absolute worst case, not a realistic assessment. I was being negligent there.
by Francois in Paris on Sat Feb 18th, 2006 at 12:55:06 PM EST
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