EuroPDB: February 20, 2006 | 22 comments (22 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (4.00 / 2)

Excellent questions, and I'm afraid they are relatively easy to answer when we speculate. Since Serbia is a regional power, the UN and EU will have to provide protection for many many years to Kosovo, and in so doing they will also have to prop it up financially. Until that time when both areas are integrated into the EU--if they ever are. Albania will be an EU member before this comes to pass.

Really, this is what happens when political neophytes like Madeliene albright try to make a necessary political point (punishment of Milosevic) without considering the consequences. If the Serbs see Kosovo as their land (and they surely do) they will regard it as such until that time that the fact of Kosovo's independence is completely erased from their cultural memory. That takes a long time. Probably a century. The fact that there have been 6 Balkan Wars in the last century, not including warring between these factions during the World Wars and the Kosovo War of 1999 shows that the two sides are not averse to fighting it out again and again and again over this same patch of territory. The colossal failure of diplomacy at Rambouillet is to blame for this mess. Had Albright done the proper thing and stuck by her initial proposals (which the Serbs accepted much to her consternation) then we would have had a viable peace, a Kosova for Albanians run by Albanians, and a small chunk of Mitrovica for the Serbs. The war itself created such hostility that this division is no longer possible, especially now that the West is on the ground and seen as protectors.

Yet another diplomatic screw-up among the many screw-ups that characterized the ex-Yugo wars of the 1990s.

Given the history of the region, the next move will be an Albanian attempt to cleanse the entire territory of Serbs (through violence or coersion). The fear of a potential Serb fifth column and the West's eventual departure simply makes this a categorical necessity for Albanians. This is part of the history of the region. You move populations in order to preserve the status quo.

by Upstate NY on Mon Feb 20th, 2006 at 12:46:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 0)

While it is true that this issue is a very complicated one, I do not believe that the method of resolving the conflict was a screw-up. It is quite true that it could have been done in a much peaceful way, and I wish it had. However, I do not believe that the Albanians would have in any way agreed to the secession of Kosovo (i.e. handing over the northern part of Kosovo) and I do not see how the Serbs would have agreed to let Kosovo go so easily either. I can only assume that maybe before 1990 such a decision might have been possible and maybe the Albanians would have agreed to it (which I strongly doubt); though, I was very young then and I am not sure what the situation in the region was really like.

Given the history of the region, the next move will be an Albanian attempt to cleanse the entire territory of Serbs (through violence or coersion).

While I consider this an intriguing statement, I am just not sure which historical period you are referring to. As I have come to understand, Albanians have not made attempts to cleanse the entire territory of Serbs (before the others' attempt to cleanse them and it was revenge rather than a plan). I do not know where you got the idea that the Albanians are afraid of a potential Serb fifth column and why cleansing the entire territory of Serbs seems as a categorical necessity. If the status quo is observed at first hand, one can clearly understand that the Albanians in Kosovo are simply interested in having a sovereign country where everyone is treated as a first class citizen and there is no discrimination. Trust me, everyone is tired of wars and conflicts and they just want to live a normal life.

There will be traumas and hatred for quite a long time (Bosnia and Croatia clearly proves that). It will take years and generations for everyone to put back everything that has happened (actually, people who have not experienced what has happened). However, I truly believe that the way the situation is being resolved is an effective one and it will result in the greater good.

Serbs (the majority) will accept the fact that Kosovo is independent. EU and US will remain in Kosovo for many years but there will come a time when they will leave and both Serbia and Kosovo will be ready to join EU. The people of these countries will start to get more concerned with their economical situations and attempt to leave the past behind and build a better future... at least I hope.

by AmonRa on Mon Feb 20th, 2006 at 02:51:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (4.00 / 3)

Look into the Rambouillet negotiations. There you will find your answer. The Serbs agreed to permanently give up the province so that the UN and NATO could rule it. This was 6 months before the war. However, because Albright had sidelined the peaceful elements of the Kosovo leadership (i.e. Ibrahim Rugova) she was left with egg on her face when the Serb capitulation at Ramby surprised both her and Hasim Thaci sitting beside her. To the Serbs, "Yes, we agree," Thaci replied with a "No, we Albanians do not agree." Albright was absolutely stunned. They left the room, and they came back with an additional demand. The Serbs would not only leave Kosovo and give it up to the UN, but they would allow the UN and NATO unfettered control of Serbia proper. A non-starter. Obviously. And there you have the blown diplomacy that led to the war. Without the hostilities that ensued, both sides would have been more amenable to a bicommunal federal state on the order of Bosnia. First off, 35% of the population were non-Albanians at the time as opposed to the 95% today. Fromm Racak to Operation Horseshoe, the West concocted an ethnic cleansing plan which had no basis in reality. before the bombs started dropping, Kosovo was a low-level counter-insurgency skirmish in which less than 1,500 had died in gun battles, about a third of those Serbs, and one thousand Albanians. The skirmishes between the KLA and the Serbs didn't even begin until the ponzi scheme in neighboring Albania brought down the government, allowing criminal elements to raid the Albanian armories. Those weapons trickled into Kosovo, and that's how Rugova was displaced as the peaceful leader of the Albanians.

So, you can say the Serbs would have never agreed to a handover, but they already had, at Rambouillet. Prior to the war, Albanians would also have been more eager to cut a deal.

When I mentioned past ethnic cleansings, I was referring to the Balkan Wars and World War 2 and Tito's reign. Kosovo has always been a ground for ethnic cleansing. Originally a Serb territory, it came to be dominated by Albanians gradually during Ottoman rule. In the early 1900s, as the Serbs battled it out with Muslims and Turks, they regained control of kosovo and rolled back the Albanian presence. In the world wars, the Albanians and Sandjaks (Bosnian Muslims in the region) sided with the Germans both times and rolled back the Serbian presence. Between the wars, the new Communist Yugos rolled back the Albanians. After World War 2, the Serbs initially rolled back the Albanian presence again until Tito's policies to repopulate the country into ethnic mixes which would curtail the powers of the republics resulted in a new effort to curb the Serbian presence in Kosovo. After Tito's death, Milosevic once again tried to roll back Albanian power. This is a see-saw. Both the Serbs and Albanians have repeatedly engaged in ethnic cleansing campaigns in the region. The history is well documented. And this is the entire reason that Serbs will burn down mosques and Albanians will burn down churches and monasteries. In order that the cultural memory of the other will be completely wiped out.

by Upstate NY on Mon Feb 20th, 2006 at 04:08:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 0)

Poor choice of words: the West concocted a public relations campaign that built the case that the Serbs had a plan to ethnically cleanse the region.

by Upstate NY on Mon Feb 20th, 2006 at 04:10:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 0)

The US diplomats would not take a 'yes' for an answer... Now where have I heard that one before?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 20th, 2006 at 04:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 0)

I think there are some misunderstandings about Rambouillet. Serbs did not "agree to give up the province so that the UN and NATO could rule it." The talks failed because Milosevic and Milutinovic have both refused a Nato-led military presence in Kosovo. At the beginning Kosovo Albanians refused the deal because it did not include independence. On March 15th, Kosovo Albanians agreed to the peace deal which would give Kosovo an extensive autonomy for a three year period--without independence. The apprehension was because "Yugoslavia believed that in three years following the required referendum it would be forced to grant Kosovo complete independence." Thus, the Serb delegation refused the deal, stating that "a deployment of a Nato-led force in Kosovo was out of the question." Ratko Markovic then declared that "If Nato entered Serbia without invitation it will be met as an aggressor, as an enemy. "Your explanation of the negotiations seems very biased and the way it is explained sounds like a kindergarten game played by state leaders.

Regarding the conflict itself, if I remember clearly which believe me I do, the war in Kosovo started much earlier than 1999. After Kosovo lost its autonomy in 1989, the Albanian majority was persecuted continuously by the Serbs. A large number of people were fired from their jobs, schools annexed, and many other rights taken away. Living in such hard conditions did not look to bright for the Albanians and the frustration grew. Though the world media was not too interested into covering the beginning of the conflict extensively, the conflict started by mid 1997. Serbian military and paramilitary forces started an offensive against Albanian villages and started the onslaught on Albanian families. Before the bombing started on 24th March 1999, there have been around 4,000 Albanians killed and during the three month NATO bombing in Kosovo, another 6,000 were killed (besides the over 1 million displaced). Speaking of ethnic cleansing, Vojislav Seselj, on October 1995, outlined a plan on how to ethically clean Kosovo. It included "forced depopulation and confiscation of land, [...] suggestions for mobilizing Serb paramilitaries, psychological warfare and the elimination of Albanian leaders through bogus scandals, staged traffic accidents and the AIDS virus." It is called the Serb Blueprint for Cleansing Kosovo.

If you talk to Albanians at first hand, they would tell you all kinds of horrible and gruesome stories and experiences that they have had with Serbs before and during the war--especially the latter. I am in no way stating that there were no Serbs that have suffered during those hard times. However, I am trying to prove a point that after what people have gone through during those couple of years, no one was willing to accept the idea of Serbian military and police presence in Kosovo. Maybe theoretically it might have been possible, but realistically I would not see that as a possibility.

Based on your historical analysis, Serbs were in the region first. I do disagree but I respect what you believe. Based on what I have read, Serbs crossed the Danube into the Balkans by the 6th century. Kosovo was already Albanian and then the Serbs tried to push Albanians down. A lot of things occur in the meantime; however, in the past 25 years, Kosovo has had an approximately 90% Albanian majority (as opposed to 95% currently). While its majority was being persecuted, the KLA emerged and demanded independence. Serbia brought thousands of soldiers to eradicate the "terrorists," and took the chance to cleans Albanian villages and start threatening Albanians to leave Kosovo. I believe you know what happens next and today you have the situation as it is. Ex-Serbian leaders are tried in The Hague one after the other for committing genocide and Kosovo is in the brink of winning its independence. I see justice rather than a screw-up.

by AmonRa on Mon Feb 20th, 2006 at 09:36:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 1)

Oure versions of history are entirely different. The Serbs AGREED to Albright's demands at Rambouillet. They did NOT refuse a NATO military presence in Kosovo at Ramby. They allowed it. The Albanian side came into the room with Albright, as Albright was sponsoring them. She was reported to be completely livid by the Albanian response. When the meeting reconvened, the new text of the agreement included a proviso which stated that NATO would deploy to Serbia proper and have effective free reign. That's what the Serbs refused. Robert Scheer has written extensively on that meeting in the New York Times. My rendition of the negotiations is biased? Well, yeah, but the facts have the same bias. This is what happened. And this was well-known in the mass media. That's why TIME magazine in the USA came out with an article calling the war, Madeleine's War, because of the hard line she took in negotiations, and because of the criticism she was receiving for that line from extreme left and conservative circles inside the United States.

As for how many Albanians died, I qon't quibble over numbers. A handful is too many, although I will note that Helsinki Rights watch was using the number 1,500 total in the province prior to the war, 500 of which were Serbs who had died from the KLA. This is precisely the reason why the KLA was officially labeled a terrorist organization by many Western States, including the US and many in the EU.

I know that you believe Seslj or the Serbs had a grand plan for the mass ethnic cleansing of the province. I know that this was reported in the mass media everywhere. But the whole story was a hoax, and it was rather easy to discover. With future echoes of Nigerian Yellowcake, the West's intelligence services conjured up the Serbian genocide plan for Kosovo. They named it Horseshoe, but they gave it the Croatian word for Horseshoe, not the Serbian word, and thus they were tripped up.

I will give you a rather biased expose of this sordid event. Only the bias is a peculiar one. Have a look at this document:

Please read #s 93, 94, 95

As for whether the Albanians would have accepted a Serb presence in Kosovo given their experience, that whole prospect was moot, since Ramby called for the complete withdrawal of all Serbian military and police. Given this fact, it was a massive diplomatic screwup, and the region will very likely pay again for it.

by Upstate NY on Mon Feb 20th, 2006 at 10:13:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Kosovo' attempt to ethnic cleansing ?!?!?! (none / 0)

OK in 1999 there was a rush of thousands of Kosovars in the Albanian border of Kukes. They were then send into different camps in different cities in Albania, that were created especially for them. To our believe, and that of the international arena, they were being evacuated--a very polite world for what these Kosovars really experienced--for their houses. This people were the remaining family part--children, mothers, sisters, or grandmothers--of the rest of the population--the math adds up to MAN. They were killed of forced to separate from their families in order to be killed later. These people were thrown out of their homes, they so their families disintegrate in a fraction of a second, their houses burned or family members getting raped or tortured. The majority of them did not have a clue what happened to their families, what will happen to them in the future or if they would at least have the possibility to cry over the dead bodies of their beloved. They were forced--due to the economic conditions and the transitional period facing Albania, which was still recovering from 1997--to live in small places where they had just enough food to survive and blankets to pretend they were kept warm. Now I don't want to be very dramatic, but if the international arena achieved to disrupt my imagination and to create this memories in my mind, than I am very surprised to how much technology has developed in so many years. I don't think that looking at the disfigured faces of those people has created the best memories for anyone. I am not trying to make anyone feel bad, I am just saying that if you consider the fact that the international arena has achieved to create a distorted perception of what was going on in Kosovo, than why don't you for one moment consider that may be you were the one subject to the distorted information. I am not saying that Kosovars did not react to this events and they did, and to some certain extent they were pretty violent, but the I think they are justified to a major extent considering that the international arena-namely US in this case--took to long to act. And anyway I don't think that any of things done to the Serbs from the Kosovars were as violent as the bombing that happened later on in an attempt to stop the heresy created by a contorted dream of Greater Serbia.

by SdRaWkCaB on Tue Feb 21st, 2006 at 09:30:18 AM EST
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Re: Kosovo' attempt to ethnic cleansing ?!?!?! (none / 1)

I'd say both of the responses to my post are a bit off the mark. No one denies Albanian suffering. It should be evident that I am discussing diplomacy before the war. Nothing more. It's really as simple as that.

And I never got personal in this discussion, so I will ask both of you to refrain from making assumptions about my experiences and my background. They are really irrelevant to the discussion here.

I'm looking at this from a global political outlook. Given the nature and frequency of the violence in Kosovo in 1999 (the killings had started a year earlier) one might argue--in relative terms--that the US jumped in very quickly. When compared to similar flashpoints all over the world (In Sri Lanka, Kashmir, East Timor, Kurdistan, Sudan, etc.) the Kosovo affair was a rather quick and decisive intrusion.

You're asking me to consider that I am the one with the distorted information. And yet I'm also the one who linked to a discussion of this subject in the UK Parliament. If the UK parliament has already admitted that the Western intelligence services deliberately conjured propaganda that would lead the sides to conflict, then how can I possibly be accused of having a distorted viewpoint? I don't understand your reasoning.

Again, I'm emphasizing the manner in which the West rattled its sabers. I am convinced that had they not done so, we would have had greater peace and fewer deaths, and this same analysis can be carried over to Bosnia. Had Cyrus Vance and David Owen had their way, 90,000 Bosnian Muslims would be alive today.

by Upstate NY on Tue Feb 21st, 2006 at 10:44:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 0)

The differences between our perceptions on this conflict are somewhat based on our experiences. I believe that you do not know what it is like not to be allowed to speak your own language freely. I assume that you do not know what it is like to go to school in makeshift classrooms, where walls were made out of wood and I had to share a chair with another person due to shortages of supplies. I am sure you do not know what it feels like to be shot at (missed luckily) at the age of 13 just because you have a different nationality. I am sure you have not been thrown out of your house and have not had to sleep at the border of another country hoping that they will let you in, because if they didn't you knew what would happen. There are many other things that have happened but there is no reason for mentioning them all. I am sure we have had very different lives and thus we perceive things differently, especially this conflict. If you will try to convince me that ethnic cleansing did not occur in Kosovo and it was not planned, all I can say to that is "I strongly disagree."

Whether I believe that the conflict was resolved rightfully, there is no doubt about that. I know that I would not be where I am right now and you would not be reading my comments right now. Am I happy? Yes, very much and I have the West to thank for intervening and giving me the rights and liberties that every citizen of a democratic country enjoys.

by AmonRa on Tue Feb 21st, 2006 at 09:44:03 AM EST
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Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 1)

And I never got personal in this discussion, so I will ask both of you to refrain from making assumptions about my experiences and my background. They are really irrelevant to the discussion here.

by Upstate NY on Tue Feb 21st, 2006 at 10:46:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 0)

I did not attempt to make any assumption about your experience and background and I apologize if you find my comment in any way unpleasent. The only reason why I used my own personal experience is to prove that persecutions have been occurring much earlier and since it has gotten worse around '97-'98 there was an urgent need for an international intervention. The West did not concoct a public relations campaign to build a case that the Serbs had a plan to ethnically cleanse the region - it was actually happening. Thus, I am glad the West intervened (I wish they had done so earlier) and I am quite satisfied with the way things have turned out. Understanding the roots of the conflict I would see no other alternative solution to this problem. I can never imagine Serbs accepting an independent status for Kosovo before. Talks in Vienna have already started and it seems that the only option is independence - the status we have fought for.

by AmonRa on Tue Feb 21st, 2006 at 12:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 0)

But yoiur point would only be valid if one were to accept your terms. For instance, the percentage of the Kosovo population that was Albanian. The UN in the recent articles has claimed that there are 100,000 Serbs still in Kosovo. So, if we're to assume that they are 10% of the population, how can the Albanians possibly have comprised 90% of the population before the war? When we know that a great many Serbs, the majority, have left the province for good? And that's not even taking into account Roma, Sandjaks, Egyptians, etc.

Thus, the Serb agreement to hand over autonomy at Ramby (Serb military and police would leave Kosovo and hand it over to the UN) would have resulted in fewer deaths, and a more multicultural Kosovo, under the UN's guidance. Instead, what we got were war, bombs, killings that raised the level of enmity on either side.

by Upstate NY on Tue Feb 21st, 2006 at 01:46:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 0)

Yes, there are around 100,000 Serbs living in Kosovo but considering the fact that the population of Kosovo is over 2 million, Serbs comprise only 5% of the total population. Including the other minorities which consist around 2-3%, approximately 92% of Kosovo's population are Albanians.

Regarding the Ramby agreement, the Serbs did not agree to the terms of the agreement because they did not want an international peacekeeping force present in Kosovo. Albanians DID agree to the peace deal on March 15th.
On March 23rd Richard Holbrooke leaves Belgrade with a negative answer for the peace deal. Consequently, the bombing starts on 24th March. IF they would have agreed to completely move its military and police force out of the country and allow international peacekeepers inside Kosovo, they would have never agreed to a referendum on independence. That is what the Albanians would not have agreed on.
Here's a quick timeline to the pre-war era and what specifically happened.

Cheers.

by AmonRa on Tue Feb 21st, 2006 at 06:16:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talks on Kosovo's future (none / 1)

Sigh. We've been over this three times already. You're talking about the final proposal which the Serbs did NOT agree to. They did not agree to allowing NATO and the UN to take complete control of Serbia proper. That's what they didn't agree to. This is well known in the West. We had coverage of the events in major newspapers like the Los Angeles Times and even TIME magazine.

During the initial proposal, the Serbs agreed to relinquish Kosovo, and the Albanians rejected the proposal. That's why Albright became so angry.

The difference is, I'm talking about the initial proposal at Ramby, and you're talking about the second proposal which was put into play BECAUSE the Serbs agreed to the first, and the Albanians didn't.

I would note that the second proposal did NOT contain preconditions on Kosovo's final status, but instead it contained unacceptable conditions on NATO's free reign inside Serbia proper. In other words, it not only made it impossible for the Serbs to say YES to an agreement, but the proposal didn't even throw the Albanians a bone for their initial disagreement. It didn't allow them independence. And this should tell you quite a bit about the West's thinking. They were more interested in starting a war with Serbia than in fulfilling the Albanians' needs.

As for the population, I was talking about the numbers BEFORE the war. It's no surprise that most Kosovo Serbs have left the region and thus, the Albanian population now exceeds 90%.

by Upstate NY on Tue Feb 21st, 2006 at 06:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

EuroPDB: February 20, 2006 | 22 comments (22 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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